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Yup, Apple’s Advertising Budget Is Bigger Than Microsoft Vista’s

When Apple started running the anti-Vista commercial (above) mocking Microsoft for spending $300 million on Vista’s own ad campaign instead of on fixing its problems, I called it hypocritical:

Apple’s advertising budget is also pretty massive. I mean, I see more Apple commercials on TV than ads for Barack Obama. Apple is on track to spend more than $3.5 billion on SG&A (selling, general, and administrative expenses) for its fiscal year that ended September 30. How much of that was spent on advertising? I don’t know, but 10 percent doesn’t seem unreasonable.

It turns out that I underestimated Apple’s advertising budget. Lindsay Blakely at Bnet (a former Business 2.0 reporter) found the actual numbers in a subsequent SEC filing. In its 2008 fiscal year that just ended last September, Apple spent a whopping $486 million on advertising. (In fiscal year 2007, it spent $467 million, and in fiscal year 2006 it spent $338 million).

Half a billion dollars on marketing. No wonder I think Apple products are so great.

Update: Microsoft spends more on advertising across all of its combined businesses than Apple does, but its Windows business is what competes most directly with Apple. Microsoft’s total advertising budget across all of its businesses, including Windows, Office, Xbox, and all the enterprise stuff, was the following (from the 10K): “Advertising expense was $1.2 billion, $1.3 billion, and $1.2 billion in fiscal years 2008, 2007, and 2006, respectively.”

Microsoft’s fiscal year ends in June, so these numbers do not reflect the $300 million Vista campaign. But that would have eaten up 25 percent of Microsoft’s entire ad budget for any of the previous three years.

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Microsoft Probably Not Really Considering WebKit For IE

Next to chanting ‘developers, developers, developers’ once again at a Sydney developer conference, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has stated that he thought the idea of using open source application framework WebKit as the rendering engine for Internet Explorer (and its mobile counterpart) was “interesting” and that the company “may look at that.”

According to Techworld, Ballmer specifically said:

“Open source is interesting. Apple has embraced Webkit and we may look at that, but we will continue to build extensions for IE 8.”

While that would make perfect sense if you ask me, it would be a huge mistake to jump to any conclusions based on those words. It’s highly unlikely that Microsoft would endorse an open-source product in such a big way, and I can’t imagine them working on the same code base together with Apple either.

Still, embracing WebKit as the foundation for future versions of IE would be welcomed by many a developer. Using WebKit would enable the company to leverage the framework’s standards compliance and impressive speed, while still enabling Microsoft to extend IE with proprietary extensions.

WebKit was originally derived by Apple from the Konqueror browser’s KHTML software library for use as the engine of Safari 1.0. It’s now being used by Nokia and Apple for their mobile browsers, and Google Chrome and the Android browser are powered by WebKit as well. Firefox on the other hand has its own rendering engine called Gecko.

Firefox, Safari and Chrome keep taking bites out of Microsoft’s market share for web browsing at a rapid pace. As ReadWriteWeb recently reported, Mozilla claims an impressive 20% worldwide market share for Firefox.

On a sidenote: Ballmer apparently also admitted at the event that Microsoft got delayed with the transition from IE6 to IE7 during the development of Longhorn, which later became Vista.

“But I don’t want to go there.”

Smart thinking.

Update: ZDNet Australia has a video of the full Ballmer speech. For the WebKit comments, jump to the 38:45 mark.

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Microsoft BizSpark Embraces Startups With Free Software, Services

Microsoft is launching a new program called BizSpark to encourage startups to build on their stack this morning.

Virtually everything a startup needs to build a web service (many of the tools and software compete with open source alternatives, such as MySQL) is being offered to startups for free for three years. The program, run by VP Strategic and Emerging Business Development Dan’l Lewin, is global and provides access to full-featured development tools and production licenses of server products with no upfront costs. BizSpark also provides the necessary hand holding with free technical support.

The fine print: startups need to be referred in via a network of venture capitalists, consultants and other professionals in a position to flag promising companies. To qualify a startup needs to have been in business for less than three years and have less than $1 million in revenue.

What startups get: a free, tech-supported alternative to open source software. Microsoft gets to train a new crop of engineers on their software and services, and lock these guys in after three years when fees start to be charged. Brilliant.

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Force.com Sets Its Sites On Microsoft

Salesforce's DreamForce developer conference opens Monday morning with the announcement of a new Force.com Sites service. Sites is a new business for Salesforce, potentially extending the thousands of Force.com applications by pushing application data to the Web over Salesforce servers. In doing so, Salesforce becomes even more of a channel for larger cloud players such as Google and Amazon, and even Microsoft to the extent that Force.com developers are free to integrate services such as Mesh and even Silverlight. Although Marc Benioff dismisses such an alliance, he'll have to work fast to expand Force.com outward as Microsoft comes after him from the outside in. Fertile ground may lie in harnessing Google apps and realtime services to populate Sites-enabled applications with smart information services based on targeted user behavior derived from Gmail, Google Reader, IM, and micromessaging. Salesforce can provide tomorrow's Azure services today while using fear of Microsoft overwhelming the industry again to encourage Google and other RIA cloud players such as Adobe to federate around Salesforce as a rallying point for the enterprise.

Web2.0: TechCrunch

Ballmer Email: Microsoft Is Really Sticking To “Software Plus Services” Message

Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer sent an email to customers today (reprinted below) summarizing some of the big news coming out of the Professional Developers Conference (PDC) in Los Angeles. He talks about both the Azure cloud services platform (a comprehensive set of storage, computing, and networking infrastructure services) as well as Office in the browser.

The email reiterates Microsoft’s core messaging that the Internet is fine, but it needs a little desktop software to really make it hum: “the key to delivering value today and in the future lies in combining the best aspects of software running on PCs, servers, and devices with the best aspects of services running on the Web-an approach we call “software plus services.”"

Client software is needed, he argues, to take full advantage of the hardware on devices. Multicore processors and new programming languages will expand computing capabilities, he says, and “the interactive experiences that people expect on their PC, mobile phone, and media player depend on sophisticated software running on powerful processors”:

In other words, software does the heavy lifting, and the browser makes access and communication easy: “For the Web, it’s the ability to bring together people, information, and services so we can connect, communicate, share, and transact with anyone, anywhere, at any time.”

The full email is below. What Ballmer says makes sense. But Microsoft also has a huge stake in software, since it powers more than 100% of their profits. If he’s betting correctly, Microsoft can dominate another generation of computing. If not, Google eats their lunch.

Or maybe Google is thinking the same way…as they expand the functionality of Gears ever further, Google is also saying they need a direct tie to the hardware on a PC to really make their services sing.


—–Original Message—–
From: Steve Ballmer
Sent: Tuesday, October 28, 2008 2:37 PM
To:
Subject: A Platform for the Next Technology Revolution

During the past decade, a dramatic transformation in the world of information technology has been taking shape. It’s a transformation that will change the way we experience the world and share our experiences with others. It’s a transformation in which the barriers between technologies will fall away so we can connect to people and information no matter where we are. It’s a transformation where new innovations will shorten the path from inspiration to accomplishment.

Many of the components of this transformation are already in place. Some have received a great deal of attention. “Cloud computing” that connects people to vast amounts of storage and computing power in massive datacenters is one example. Social networking sites that have changed the way people connect with family and friends is another.

Other components are so much a part of the inevitable march of progress that we take them for granted as soon as we start to use them: cell phones that double as digital cameras, large flat-screen PC monitors and HD TV screens, and hands-free digital car entertainment and navigation systems, to name just a few.

What’s missing is the ability to connect these components in a seamless continuum of information, communication, and computing that isn’t bounded by device or location. Today, some things that our intuition says should be simple still remain difficult, if not impossible. Why can’t we easily access the documents we create at work on our home PCs? Why isn’t all of the information that customers share with us available instantly in a single application? Why can’t we create calendars that automatically merge our schedules at work and home?

This week at the Professional Developers Conference (PDC) in Los Angeles, we shared news with software developers about a new set of platform technologies that will help transcend these limits. Because you are a subscriber to Executive Emails from Microsoft, I wanted to share my thoughts about the impact that these technologies will have as developers begin to use them to create a new generation of experiences that extend uninterrupted from the desktop to the mobile phone, media player, car, and beyond-to places where we never thought information and communications would be available to us.

A NEW PLATFORM FOR CLOUD COMPUTING

At PDC, we announced the availability of an early preview release of a new technology called Windows Azure. Windows Azure will enable developers to build applications that extend from the cloud to the enterprise datacenter and span the PC, the Web, and the mobile phone. For the first time, we shared pre-beta code for Windows 7 and for Windows Server 2008 R2. Windows 7, which is the next version of the Windows desktop operating system, will take advantage of software and hardware advances to help eliminate the boundaries between information, people, and devices.

We also previewed Office Web applications, which are light-weight versions of Word, Excel, PowerPoint, and OneNote that are designed to be accessed through a browser. Office Web applications will be part of the next version of Office and will enable people to view, edit, and share information and collaborate on documents on the desktop, the phone, and in a Web browser in a way that is consistent and familiar.

Windows Azure is part of the Azure Services Platform, a comprehensive set of storage, computing, and networking infrastructure services that reside in Microsoft’s network of datacenters. Using the Azure Services Platform, developers will be able to build applications that run in the cloud and extend existing applications to take advantage of cloud-based capabilities. The Azure Services Platform provides the foundation for business and consumer applications that deliver a consistent way for people to store and share information easily and securely in the cloud, and access it on any device from any location.

Windows Azure is not software that companies will run on their own servers. It’s something new: a service that runs in Microsoft’s growing network of datacenters and provides the platform that helps companies respond to the realities of today’s business environment, and tomorrow’s. Windows Azure technologies are already finding their way into products such as Windows Server 2008 and System Center Virtual Machine Manager, enabling organizations and Microsoft partners to create their own cloud infrastructure.

Windows Azure will enable organizations to respond to realities such as the need to use the Web to provide customers with comprehensive information and to interact with an audience that has the potential to expand exponentially overnight; to integrate operations with partners-and sometimes even competitors-to meet customer needs; to add new capabilities quickly to respond to new opportunities; and to enable employees to work efficiently and effectively no matter where they are. These realities apply not just to businesses, but to organizations of all kinds: schools, governments, community groups, and more.

Traditional approaches to building technology infrastructure and delivering computing capabilities make it difficult and expensive to adjust to these realities. You need systems with enough capacity to meet the highest possible demand-capacity that includes servers and buildings to house them, the power to run them, and the people to manage them. You have to spread that capacity across locations so there’s a backup if one part fails. You have to solve issues like access for different types of users and compliance with tax regulations in all countries where your customers reside.

Designed specifically to meet the global scale that today’s organizations require, the Azure Services Platform will provide fundamentally new ways to deploy services and capabilities. It gives businesses the option to take advantage of the capacity available in the cloud as it is needed, reducing the need to make large upfront investments in infrastructure simply to be ready when demand spikes. It will enable developers to create applications that run in the cloud and provide the features, information, and interactivity that employees, partners, and customers expect-no matter how many of them there are, where they are in the world, or what device they have at hand.

SOFTWARE PLUS SERVICES AND THE POWER OF CHOICE

The Azure Services Platform reflects our belief that choice is critical for developers, companies, and consumers. It is also based on our belief that the key to delivering value today and in the future lies in combining the best aspects of software running on PCs, servers, and devices with the best aspects of services running on the Web-an approach we call “software plus services.”

Our software plus services approach lets people take full advantage of the incredible power of today’s devices. While there are undeniable benefits to being able to tap into the wealth of information and services that can be accessed over the Web through a browser, the interactive experiences that people expect on their PC, mobile phone, and media player depend on sophisticated software running on powerful processors.

The richness of these experiences will only increase as multicore processors expand the computing capabilities of our devices and new programming languages open the door to a new generation of applications that let us use more natural ways to interact with digital technology such as voice, touch, and gestures.

Software plus services also recognizes that for most companies, the ideal way to build IT infrastructure is to find the right balance of applications that are run and managed within the organization and applications that are run and managed in the cloud.

This balance varies by company. A financial services company may choose to maintain customer records within its own datacenter to provide the extra layers of protection that it feels are needed to safeguard the privacy of personal information. It may outsource IT systems that provide basic capabilities such as email.

This balance will change over time within an organization, as well. A company may run its own online transaction system most of the year, but outsource for added capacity to meet extra demand during the holiday season. With software plus services, an organization can move applications back and forth between its own servers and the cloud quickly and smoothly.

Today, companies around the world are implementing Microsoft technologies to take advantage of the best combination of on-premise software and cloud-based services. Using Microsoft Online Services, businesses including Coca-Cola Enterprises, Blockbuster, and Energizer access and manage Microsoft Exchange, SharePoint, Office Communications Server, and Live Meeting over the Web through a single, secure infrastructure. In addition, 1 million people rely on Office Live Workspace for sharing and collaborating with friends, family, and colleagues.

EXPANDING THE DEFINITION OF PERSONAL COMPUTING

Ultimately, the reason to create a cloud services platform is to continue to enhance the value that computing delivers, whether it’s by improving productivity, making it easier to communicate with colleagues, or simplifying the way we access information and respond to changing business conditions.

In the world of software plus services and cloud computing, this means extending the definition of personal computing beyond the PC to include the Web and an ever-growing array of devices. Our goal is to make the combination of PCs, mobile devices, and the Web something that is significantly than more the sum of its parts.

The starting point is to recognize the unique value of each part. The value of the PC lies in its computing power, its storage capacity, and its ability to help us be more productive and create and consume rich and complex documents and content.

For the Web, it’s the ability to bring together people, information, and services so we can connect, communicate, share, and transact with anyone, anywhere, at any time.

With the mobile phone and other devices, it’s the ability to take action spontaneously-to make a call, take a picture, or send a text message in the flow of our activities.

Through Live Mesh-a service from Microsoft that we announced earlier this year and about which we shared new information week-we’re beginning to bridge the PC, phone, and Web and create this next generation of connected experiences. Built on the Azure Services Platform, Live Mesh enables you to use programs and information stored on your work computer from your home PC, and vice versa. With Live Mesh, you can share folders and ensure that the information is automatically synchronized across your devices.

Live Mesh hints at how our lives will be transformed as the barriers between devices disappear and the option to connect instantly to people, devices, programs, and information becomes a reality.

We’re not quite there yet. Today, the Azure Services Platform is available only as a limited technology preview release. But as developers begin to combine the capabilities of this new platform with the amazing ongoing hardware and software innovations that we are seeing from companies across the industry, it will bring us significantly closer to the time when information, communication, and computing flows along with us seamlessly as we move through our day-to-day activities.

You can learn more about these technologies and the progress we are making by visiting the Microsoft Software + Services Web site at http://www.microsoft.com/softwareplusservices/.

I look forward to sharing more information with you about these new technologies in the near future.

Steve Ballmer

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Microsoft Office Embraces The Browser (Thank You Google)

Microsoft made a major announcement today - they will be offering “lightweight” versions of Office applications - Word, Excel, PowerPoint and OneNote - through the browser. Internet Explorer, Firefox and Safari will be supported. Users will be able to read and edit documents from the browser.

We had guessed earlier this year that Microsoft would choose the Silverlight platform to deliver Office online, but Microsoft will instead be copying the Google approach - the applications will be 100% HTML and Javascript. Update: The application will be offered in both Silverlight and HTML/Ajax - if it detects Silverlight on your computer, it will launch there.

This is a bold if belated move for Microsoft, which relies heavily on Office revenues and profits to support its money-burning online business.

Google, of course, has been offering online versions of Office documents since they acquired Writely in 2006. Their versions of the applications are not as feature rich as Microsoft Office, but they’re free, easy to use and allow for easy collaboration. Microsoft was forced to respond.

The pricing model hasn’t been announced yet, but Microsoft notes that consumers can currently use Office Live Workspaces for free with advertising. Businesses will likely have some form of a subscription model.

So…free Office from Microsoft, and one less desktop application. For most users this will be more than enough to make the expensive, downloaded version irrelevant. Power users who need advanced features will still buy Office, but that’s a tiny percentage of the overall market.

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Ray Ozzie Has His Head In the Clouds

Microsoft wants in on cloud computing. At the company's Professional Developer's Conference today, Microsoft's chief software architect Ray Ozzie announced Windows Azure, its "internet-scale cloud services platform hosted in Microsoft data centers." Windows Azure will only be open as a technology preview to a very limited number of developers for now, and no pricing details have been revealed that I can find. But this is basically Microsoft's answer to Amazon's Web Services and cloud computing initiatives from other enterprise IT players, including everyone from IBM to RackSpace. Azure will run Windows servers and the .Net framework in the cloud as a hosted, pay-as-you go service. It will be part of what Microsoft is calling Live Services, and it will run Live apps, .Net apps, SQL server, Sharepoint servers, and Microsoft's Dynamics CRM. No wonder Amazon added support for Windows servers and SQL servers to EC2 just last week.

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Microsoft About To Open Surface For Developers In Search For Killer App

At this week’s Professional Developers Conference, Microsoft is set to make a slew of announcements about its product lines, and hopefully show a glimpse of some exciting new ones. One of the first gems to, um, surface is that the company is about to give a broad group of developers the ability to create applications for its Surface tabletop computer for the first time.

Everyone who attends the Surface session (later today) will apparently be able to get an exclusive email invitation for joining the Surface developer community website where the Surface SDK & Surface Simulator tool can be downloaded.

Based on an interview Seattle Tech Report did with Brad Carpenter, general manager of the Microsoft Surface team, it seems Microsoft has targeted five areas for the computer and Surface applications: entertainment, healthcare, banking, automotive, and retail.

Carpenter said that for now only 1,200 developers would be able to download the Surface’s software development kit. Earlier this month, Microsoft had already released an SDK for the “Touchless” software under an open-source license.

You can see the upcoming SDK in action in the video embedded below (kudos to Application Development):

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Microsoft Chugs Along In The Third Quarter, But Its Online Business Is Still Sucking Wind

Microsoft announced earnings today for the third quarter. Overall revenues for the quarter came in at $15 billion, growing a decent 9 percent annually. But its net profits of $4.37 billion rose only 1.9 percent. As usual, Microsoft’s stability came from is Windows client, server, and Office businesses.

The company’s online revenues, which includes MSN, search and its advertising networks, grew 15 percent to $770 million in the quarter. However, the online business posted an operating loss of $480 million, nearly double the $267 million loss it posted a year ago. On the conference call, Microsoft boasted about its Silverlight partnership with NBC during the Beijing Olympics in which 70 million videos were streamed. You’ve got to wonder how much that partnership ended up costing Microsoft.

Total online advertising revenues were up 15 percent in the quarter, with search growing faster than display. The company expects online revenue growth to slow to 6 to 10 percent next quarter, with display advertising being more sensitive to the recessionary environment.

The company will be taking $400 to $500 million out of costs by slowing its hiring, spending less on data centers, and cutting back on marketing and travel expenses. But Microsoft still has plenty of cash: $21 billion, and that was after buying back $6 billion in stock and paying out $1 billion in dividends during the quarter. To put that $7 billion Microsoft handed back to shareholders into perspective, Yahoo’s entire market cap is now only $17.5 billion.

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Apple Goes McCain On Microsoft With Mocking Attack Ads

The advertising war between Apple and Microsoft continues. Apple’s latest TV spots mock Microsoft’s $350 million ad campaign for Windows Vista, suggesting that some of that money would be better spent fixing Vista. The ad is funny (see above), but it does seem petty and elitist. After all, the new Microsoft ads got much better once they dumped Jerry Seinfeld as a spokesperson and went with the everyman “I’m a PC” rallying cry (which itself was a response to Apple’s long-running campaign mocking PCs).

It is also hypocritical. Apple’s advertising budget is also pretty massive. I mean, I see more Apple commercials on TV than ads for Barack Obama. Apple is on track to spend more than $3.5 billion on SG&A (selling, general, and administrative expenses) for its fiscal year that ended September 30. How much of that was spent on advertising? I don’t know, but 10 percent doesn’t seem unreasonable.

The second ad, which makes fun of Microsoft’s new naming conventions for Windows is below. It’s not as funny.

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Ballmer Speaks, Yahoo’s Market Cap Jumps More Than $3 Billion

Update: Microsoft says “Our position hasn’t changed. Microsoft has no interest in acquiring Yahoo!; there are no discussions between the companies.”

An off the cuff remark by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer this morning set Yahoo’s stock soaring more than 15% to $13.73, adding well over $3 billion in market cap to the struggling company.

Speaking at the Gartner ITXpo, Ballmer reportedly said a Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo (presumably he’s talking about a full buyout, not the repeatedly rejected search deal) would still “make sense economically” for both companies shareholders.

But he also cautioned that Yahoo is no longer worth the $33 per share originally offered: “Ballmer said that even with the recent drop in Yahoo’s share price, the company “probably thinks its still worth as least as much today,” as when Microsoft made its offer.”

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Confirmed: Microsoft Gives Up On MSN Groups, Hands It Off To Multiply

We’ve received confirmation that Microsoft is handing over the reins to its MSN Groups property to the social network Multiply. Microsoft is planning to release a new service called Windows Live Groups in November, and apparently doesn’t want to compete with itself. Oddly enough, Microsoft has chosen not to allow groups to transition between the two services, and instead is going to offer a migration tool that will allow users to take groups over to Multiply, which currently bills itself as the world’s 8th largest social network.

The rumor was originally reported earlier today after a series of emails were posted to a MSN Discussion newsgroup, and has since been confirmed by both Multiply and Microsoft through a blog post.

Here’s Microsoft’s explanation for the shutdown:

The natural question to ask in this situation is why we are closing MSN Groups. It is our goal to provide our customers with the most current and user friendly technology available today. We made the difficult decision to close the MSN Groups service as part of an overall investment in updating and re-aligning our online services with Windows Live. In the long term we believe that closing the service is the best way to continue to offer innovative, best of breed services that help you stay in touch with the people you care about. It’s very important to us that you keep the data you created using MSN Groups and that is why we have partnered with Multiply, so you can keep your group going into the future despite the closure of MSN Groups.

The Microsoft post also states that users will have until February 21, 2009 to migrate their groups over to Multiply, after which point the site will cease to exist.

This just seems weird - why would Microsoft abandon a sizable (but dwindling) chunk of users to an entirely unrelated social network? It’s nice that they aren’t leaving their users out in the cold, but why not just cut off new signups to MSN Groups and allow the legacy users to continue on in peace? Microsoft may appear to have made the gesture in good faith, but it’s likely that the company is hoping users will scoff at the idea of having to migrate, and just sign up on the new Live service when it launches.

Whatever Microsoft’s intentions, Multiply is sure to be happy with the deal, as it has just been handed millions of new users (we’re trying to contact Microsoft for the exact number).

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Microsoft’s Next OS To Be Called “Windows 7″. Seriously.

Microsoft has announced that the latest version of Windows, due in the next couple of years, will be called - drumroll please - Windows 7. It’s about time Microsoft adopted a naming system that might actually make some sense to users, but I can’t wait for hordes of customers to start asking if they somehow missed Windows 1 through 6.

Windows has had one of the most ridiculous naming schemes in the history of software. First there were logical (but ugly) version numbers, like the once commonplace “Windows 3.1″. Then with the release of the overhauled Windows 95 the company adopted a naming system based on the year of release, which it continued until Windows 98.

Windows Me (perhaps the worst operating system I’ve ever used), sacrificed the scheme for a chance to be clever (it stood for “me” and the millennium at the same time!) Next up we hit Windows XP, which has served most of us reasonably well since 2001. It sounds sort of cool, it’s catchy, and we have no idea what it means. Fine.

Finally we had Windows Vista, which seemed to stick with the naming convention of “something that sounds sort of cool but didn’t really mean anything”. It had been more than five years since the release of XP, so there was little chance of confusion.

Microsoft is now in a hurry to push out its next operating system after the generally dismal response to Vista. And so we’ve come to Windows 7, which is apparently tied to the build numbers and not the actual releases. The new naming scheme lends itself well to faster, more incremental releases similar to what we’ve seen from Apple (about once every 18 months), but it’s probably going to confuse everyone and couldn’t be more bland.

You can read more at the company’s blog post here.

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The Prickly Prince From Microsoft Strikes Again

Dare Obasanjo, a Microsoft employee and the son of a former President of Nigeria, doesn’t like it when people disagree with him. I found that out in 2007 when Obasanjo vandalized the TechCrunch Wikipedia page in response to a post we wrote that was mildly critical of Microsoft’s hiring of a blogger to edit certain Wikipedia entries relating to Open Office standards. His actions as an individual and as a representative of Microsoft were outrageous.

Today he writes a post accusing us of “encouraging…garbage” on TechCrunch because we’ve reported on the market fall over the last week, pointing to three examples (out of over 100 posts last week) where we chronicle the fall of Yahoo and Google stock, and the Seesmic layoffs. A number of other blogs jumped on the bandwagon, calling for the negativity to stop (obviously none of these writers read TechCrunch this last week).

“The last thing we need is popular blogs AND the mass media spreading despair and schadenfreude at a time like this,”
he says.

Our job isn’t to cheerlead the startup scene no matter what happens. Our job is to report the news as it happens and add our opinion as we feel is appropriate. So even if we were reporting nothing but doom and gloom, the criticism isn’t appropriate.

But in fact we’ve been fairly cheerful over the last week, reporting on a couple of dozen new startups and products, focusing as much as possible on the positive, and trying to defocus the mobs from blaming the venture capitalists for what’s happening in the markets.

In other words, the tone of our coverage hasn’t changed.

So what happened? You guessed it. We dared to disagree with something the Obasanjo had to say over on TechCrunchIT, which he immediately characterized as a personal attack. A few days later- zap! - he finds three posts that aren’t all roses and butterflies and makes a subtle accusation that suggests TechCrunch may be partly to blame for the hysteria in the market right now.

In fact, his post, which ostensibly calls for everyone to be positive no matter what, is really just a clever way of inciting the mob to blame (in this case) TechCrunch for the market problems.

This isn’t ok from anyone, and it really isn’t ok from a high profile Microsoft blogger. This is the second time Obasanjo has attacked us when we disagreed with him. It’s one thing to disagree. But it’s another to attack (first Wikipedia, then this F’d company comparison) when you face disagreement. And when you represent a company, whether you like it or not, you do it under their brand. In this case, given the weakness of Obasanjo’s argument, and the fact that he just had a one sided flame war with TechCrunchIT, his motives were clear. It’s time for Microsoft to stop this nonsense.

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Yahoo Shareholder Asks Microsoft To Re-Bid At $22. Good Luck With That.

Private equity fund Mithras Capital, which holds 1.9 million shares of Yahoo (about 0.14%), will propose to Microsoft that they buy Yahoo at $22 per share, Reuters reports. Microsoft would then unload Yahoo’s Asian assets adn non-search businesses, take $3 billion worth of cost savings and some tax benefits, and end up with Yahoo’s search business for $10.3 billion.

Microsoft is obviously thrilled to see this kind of corporate chaos at Yahoo, although they are unlikely to even respond to the proposal. Yahoo, as usual, looks like amateur hour as their shareholders conduct (or try to conduct) negotiations behind their back.

Mithras Capital partner Mark Nelson said he will send a letter proposing the deal to Microsoft and Yahoo this evening.

Meanwhile, Yahoo was down another 8.1% today, to $12.65, from yesterday’s close of $13.76.

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Yahoo, We Can’t Afford A Monopoly In Search Advertising Even If It Kills You

Yahoo and Google aren’t holding anything back in their effort to win our hearts minds in the search marketing war. Or rather, Yahoo’s surrender in that war as they prepare to include Google Adsense ads in their search results.

They had what amounted to a advertorial in the New York Times earlier this week. Google wrote not one but two blog posts on the matter, and launched a whole website with their side of the story. And today Yahoo President Sue Decker weighed in with a long blog post, with all the same arguments.

Microsoft, hoping to kill the deal, hasn’t been sitting quietly. They’ve got their own websites and have been lobbying the government for months to oppose the deal.

The deal allows but does not obligate Yahoo to place Google ads on their site instead of their own. Google and Yahoo stress that Yahoo is committed to keeping their own robust advertising platform to ensure long term competitiveness.

But the test results showed just how dramatically Yahoo can increase cash flow with Google ads. The more Google ads are shown, the more money Yahoo makes. And in a world where all that really matters is the financial results in your next fiscal quarter, the incentive to use more rather than fewer Google ads will be too large of a temptation.

Yahoo will be able to fine tune their financial results simply by turning up the volume on Google ads v. their own. Every time they do that they mortgage their future because they give more network power to Google’s ad system (advertisers want volume and will pay a premium for it). In other words, Yahoo will be making constant cost benefit decisions weighing short term cash flow v. long term competitiveness. Human nature and simple financial market psychology tells us unequivocally that cash will win and Yahoo’s ad network will lose.

Yahoo’s ad network will continue to erode further as they choose cash over competitiveness, creating a viscious downward cycle. As the fiscal quarters march relentlessly on, Yahoo will rely more and more on Google to make their revenue and earnings numbers.

There are three players in search today. In the long run the 80/20 rule is likely kick in unless a monopoly emerges. Microsoft needs to be that 20% player to keep the Internet healthy, just as AMD keeps Intel’s processor prices in check even though they don’t have much actual market share.

But if Google gets Yahoo, Microsoft won’t be able to be that counterbalance. And then Google will be free to charge monopoly prices to advertisers and share next to nothing of that revenue with publishers.

That’s why killing this deal is so important. It’s not about the share price of Google, Yahoo or Microsoft. It’s about maintaining a healthy Internet ecosystem that continues to let entrepreneurialism bloom.

My position on this has been steady since Microsoft first bid for Yahoo early this year. It’s destroyed my relationship with (the execs that remain at) Yahoo, and the chill is palpable during my few visits to Yahoo HQ these days. I can live with that, but what I don’t want to live with is an Internet where all the advertising revenue goes to one company. That sounds too much like the Windows/Office world of the 90s to me.

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Steve Ballmer Visits Silicon Valley, Talks About Microsoft’s Future In Software, Search And Mobile

Hummer Winblad’s Ann Winblad interviewed Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer this evening at a Churchill Club event in Silicon Valley. The live video stream is embedded below.

The early part of the discussion focused on Microsoft’s views on web based software offerings from companies like Google and Salesforce. Ballmer says apps don’t really belong solely on the client or in the cloud, but rather a “software plus services” approach that distributes processing and storage across the cloud and the local machine or device. This hybrid approach, known as Windows Live Wave 3, is being rolled out now and major announcements will be made at the upcoming Microsoft PDC conference in Los Angeles. Windows 7 will also be available for the first time at the PDC.

Ballmer also talked about Microsoft’s only money-losing business unit - online. He admits the company is a distant third in search, but claims second in “advertising software.” He says he remains committed to finding a way to win in search, and in fact says that Microsoft is the only company in a position today to compete with Google in search. He reiterated that they would continue to commit 5-10% of total operating cash flow for the foreseeable future to try to gain search share.

When Ballmer talks about search, he’s really talking about advertising, since such a high percentage of online advertising flows through the search engine. He also stressed that Microsoft is the only company that can compete with Google as the advertising market continues its digitization.

“We need to fundamentally redefine the search experience and the search business model,” he said early on.

Ballmer and Winblad also discussed the mobile market. Ballmer is focused on the smartphone market, where Microsoft software is a major player. 125 million smart phones will be sold this year, he said, and that will grow to a billion in five years. He says proprietary hardware/software stacks (iPhone) will have trouble competing with the more open approaches, such as Microsoft, Android, Symbian, etc. He ads a caveat, however: users won’t trade off usability just to have different hardware choices. The operating systems must work seamlessly across different hardware configurations.

“The smartphone market today is a lot like the PC market in 1983,” he said.

In response to a question about acquisitions v. internal research, Ballmer says they buy about 20 companies a year and will keep spending $9 billion or so a year on research and development. Most of those acquisitions are under $100 million, with a handful of larger ones. “We’ll keep buying about 20 companies a year.”

Winblad finished the interview by asking Ballmer how hard he’s found it to steer Microsoft without the recently retired Bill Gates. Ballmer was diplomatic in his response. The company is very diverse in its goals and revenue streams, he says, and so the leadership team as a group has to lead the company.

One of Microsoft’s biggest challenges is to focus on what’s really important for the company, he said. The urgent drowns out the important, he added, and they have to focus on long term growth strategies. “The decisions on what to invest in are the most important.”

Ballmer also let off a few zingers in the Q&A session.

  • One attendee complained about the unreliability of Windows - Ballmer said he’d fix his computer himself after the talk before giving a more serious answer.
  • When asked about advertising supported websites, Ballmer stated that there are very few sites that can run their business on advertising alone today. He used Facebook (a Microsoft partner) as an example, and said there was still a lot of work to be done there to figure out monetization.
  • In response to one question about education, Ballmer said he thought we weren’t doing enough to teach our children about computer science, and that computer programming knowledge should be a requirement for high school graduation.

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Why the Google-Yahoo Ad Deal Is Something to Fear

Randall Stross at The New York Times goes to bat for the Google/Yahoo search marketing deal, saying there’s “nothing to fear” from the two companies linking their search products. I believe most of his analysis is wrong, and he also skips the publisher side of the market entirely. In short, I feel that he is exactly wrong in both his approach and his conclusions.

He begins with “GOOGLE controls about 70 percent of the search advertising market. Doesn’t that give it a monopolist’s ability to set prices as high as it wishes?”

Well no actually, a monopoly controls only the supply side of a transaction, so it can’t change whatever it wants. If prices go too high, users stop buying (this is known as demand elasticity). Being a monopoly just gives you the ability to charge much higher prices than you otherwise would be able to because you don’t have a competitor who can undercut you for less profit.

But Stross skips that analysis and jumps into the meat of his argument. Ad rates are set by auctions, not dictated by Google, he says, so Google has no control over the pricing of those ads. If ad rates go up, it is just the market doing its thing.

This is the focus of his article - saying that there may not be any ad rate increases (which is absurd on its face), and alternately saying that if the rates increase it is simply the market responding to more robust ad auctions.

At the end of the day, advertisers will pay only what they want to get the ads they need. Most advertisers closely track ad performance to return on investment. If bids go up, they step back.

The real long term win for the networks is to build a commercial relationship directly with advertisers. Google has far more of them, because they’re chasing the massive search page views that Google supplies them. The more advertisers bidding, the higher the price.

With the addition of Yahoo search queries, there will be even more inventory, and even more incentive for those advertisers to jump on the Google platform.

So one centralized marketplace equals the highest economic rent to Google, which they can then share with third parties.

And that’s the big piece of the puzzle that Stross ignored. In May I wrote about the very real impact that a single search marketing provider will have on the rest of the companies in the Internet ecosystem, which tap into those networks for revenue.

On the publisher side things are even worse. Google doesn’t share enough revenue with content sites that show their ads. The only thing keeping them even close to honest is the fact that Yahoo and Microsoft will occasionally compete for those partners. Take that away, and Google will go back to keeping the majority of advertising revenue generated at those sites (their only competition will be other types of advertising, which generate far less revenue). That is a terrible outcome when you look at it from the perspective of the health of the Internet.

Microsoft can’t ignore the online advertising market, it’s just too big and important. And we need to be behind them in this effort, because if Microsoft and Yahoo lose interest, we’ll be stuck with a monopoly, and the Internet will suffer. Competition drives innovation. Competition drives prices down. To wish this away is irresponsible.

Those third party companies (like MySpace, Facebook, Digg, Ask, AOL and now Yahoo) are at the long term mercy of Google when their first agreements come up for renegotiation. Google may give Yahoo most of the revenue today from Google ads, but in ten years when Google is the only player in town, look for the terms to move towards a more standard Monopolistic model. Today Google is kept in check via competitive deals where Microsoft or Yahoo are willing to actually lose money to win away the partner from Google, and get control of those search queries.

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In Microsoft’s Advertising Corner, Ultimate Fighting Champion Rashad Evans

It looks like Bill Gates finally found someone who can fight for him. Now that Microsoft killed those awful Seinfeld ads and is finally punching back against Apple on the advertising front, it has someone you don’t want to mess with in its spokesman’s corner: Ultimate Fighting Championship bruiser Rashad Evans.

The mixed-martial arts fighter has recently been spotted entering the ring sporting a T-shirt with Bill Gates’ famous police mug shot. (His training gym in New Mexico is right next to Microsoft’s original headquarters). And he is going to be featured in some upcoming Microsoft ads. In fact, that might be him already making a cameo at the end of one of the new “I Am A PC” ads current running (second video embedded below).

Evans is definitely an improvement over Seinfeld in the spokesman category. His record in UFC fighting is 17-0-1. After knocking out his opponent Chuck Liddell earlier this month (see first video embedded below), he now has a shot at the title.

Microsoft should shoot an ad with him beating the crap out of the “I’m a Mac” guy.

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Huh. Those Mac Ads Aren’t As Funny Any More.

I sat down to write a post that highlights the really innovative new Apple ad running over two ad units on the New York Times (see video below). The ad unit came out today, the same day as Microsoft released their new set of “I’m a PC” commercials, and shows once again that Apple is always one innovative step ahead of just about everyone else. A video of the ad is below.

Except…the ads aren’t quite as funny any more. And the post that I was going to write, about how much better Apple is at messaging than Microsoft (which is true), just kept writing itself differently. And so I scratched the original post and here I am (a topic for another time is how I never quite know what I’m going to write until I’ve written it).

Those Microsoft commercials aren’t particularly engaging, and they don’t make me want to go out and buy a copy of Vista. But what they do is show lots of fascinating people saying that they use PCs. They highlight the fact that many people may be somewhat offended by the idea that they can’t be interesting or cool if they don’t use a Mac.

Suddenly, Apple looks a little elitist. I mean, they were elitist before, but in a way that made you want to be a part of the club. Now, they just seem a little snobby.

If that’s what Microsoft and their pushing clients to the edge advertising agency Crispin Porter + Bogusky were aiming for, it’s brilliant.

With Microsoft’s still dominant market share, all they have to do is fight Apple to a draw and they still win. And if Apple can’t continue to beat Microsoft over the head with their Mac v. PC ads, they’ll have to think up a new way to get people’s attention.

I still think the Seinfeld commercials were a flop, but I give them credit for this new set of commercials. We’ll see if Apple continues to run their ads, and how people respond to them. But Microsoft may have just made a really smart move.

That New York Times Apple ad is really cool though. I give them that.

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It’s Over For Seinfeld, But Crispin Porter Keeps Microsoft Business

People at Microsoft that I trust are saying that it has absolutely, positively, definitely (really) always been the plan to have Seinfeld appear in just the first few warm up commercials for their $300 million Vista ad campaign, and then move on to the meat of the messaging. And I believe them, with the appropriate wiggle room (like if the ads were super well received, they may have exercised an option to keep him longer, etc.).

But either way, Seinfeld is out, at least for now, after three controversi