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Inside Microsoft’s Internet Infrastructure & Its Plans For The Future

A few minutes after she delivered a speech at our Structure 08 conference in San Francisco, I caught up with Microsoft’s corporate VP of global foundation services, Debra Chrapaty, for a video chat. I think a more appropriate title for her would be Mr. Softie’s Internet Infrastructure Czar. I found her very knowledgeable, engaging and open with her opinions. “We have some new innovations up our sleeve that are going to knock the socks of anything anyone is doing, including our friends down south,” she told me. She didn’t name Google, of course, but we all know who she was talking about.

Her candor was one of the reasons I wanted decided to share the video with you guys. The common theme of the conversation: Microsoft is spending liberally to build out its Internet infrastructure, including upgrading its backbone network and scaling out its data center infrastructure by adding new technologies.

When I asked her exactly how much Microsoft was spending on it, she dodged the question, saying just that it was a big number. This much we do know: Two years ago, the company was spending close to $2 billion on its infrastructure; it has since undertaken the development of six data centers, with parts of two networks already online.

Facts About Microsoft-Owned Data Centers
Adding 10,000 servers a month
New data centers being planned/under construction are equivalent of over 15 US football fields of data center space.
Plans to cut of 30% to 40% in data-center power costs company-wide over the next two years.
Current network backbone runs at about 100 gigabits per second, but soon Microsoft plans to bump it to 500 Gigabits. I think this could be big for Level 3, long time partner of Microsoft.
Building out its own CDN (Edge) network - 99 nodes on a 100 gigabit per second backbone.
For Microsoft, total data grows ten times every three years. The data in near future will soon approach 100s of petabytes. This includes data from all of their online services.
Source: Microsoft, GigaOM
Location Status Quincy, Washington Opened April 2007, construction continues San Antonio, Texas Under Construction, planned opening September 2008 Dublin, Ireland Under Construction Northlake, Illinois Under Construction, Phase one to go live in October 2008 Iowa TBD
When complete, it will consume 48 megawatts of energy. Microsoft can tap up to 72 MW of energy coming from hydro power. Microsoft is paying about 1.8 cents per kilowatt, but will rise to between 2.6-to-2.9 cents per kilowatt as more capacity goes online. Two data centers in this location.
It will be 447,000 square feet on 44 acres. Microsoft is building two data centers here
first Windows Live data center outside the U.S.
The first floor of this facility is going to be entirely made of containers and would house Microsoft search.
Source: Microsoft

Watch the video to get the full low-down, but if you’re in a hurry, here are some highlights, including her quotes from our conversation.

  • “We are building data centers but I don’t want to say not just data centers. We are already on to our second generation data centers. More utilization, better density and more power efficient.” For Chrapaty, power efficiency is not just talk, it’s her mission — she is the driving force behind Microsoft’s server utilization.
  • “Infrastructure is a differentiator. I use FedEx as an example. They are world’s most predominant distribution company. It wasn’t that they had a great brand or they had all these plans. No, what they did was find these strategic landing fields where they could get in and out quickly to key distribution points across the globe. It defined their company. I think the same is true in the infrastructure now. Data centers are already becoming a scarce resource.” Google realized this a long time ago; Microsoft is now demonstrating how it can put money to work and build an advantage over others.
  • Like Google, Microsoft is taking the design of servers into its own hands. “We are doing some unique things in the mother board designs, server designs, and because we are Microsoft, operating systems.”
  • She’s a big champion of container data centers, which essentially act like the trailers on long-haul trucks, optimized and packed with all sorts of gear — servers, switches, storage systems — that’s wheeled in and plugged into the power grid and the network. Sounds like Rackable Systems and Verari are major suppliers of these containers to Microsoft; the company is making extensive use of them in their Chicago facility.
  • Her comments indicate that Microsoft has plans to offer managed services to large corporations.
  • She lets us know first that they are building a IOWA data center, which is huge for Iowa. Google has one in Iowa too.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Prying Open the Social Graph

Technology buzzwords come and go…virtualization, green, SaaS…and after sitting through the Google Friend Connect announcement, reading about Facebook’s Connect service and writing about last week’s MySpace Data Availability launch, “open” appears to be just the latest. But open is one of those words whose definition can be spun into a variety of meanings.

While Facebook isn’t yet releasing much detail on its efforts and may completely surprise me, Google’s Friend Connect program today highlights how open standards such as OpenID, OAuth and OpenSocial can be used to create a platform that’s pretty closed. The service, which will launch tonight and only expects to have between 12 and 24 sites participating while it’s in preview mode over the next few months, will allow site publishers to put some code on their sites. If a user visits a site with the appropriate code, she can get access, via an IFrame, to applications built in OpenSocial. A user can also share her activities on a participating site with her contacts, as well as through her news feeds on participating social networking sites.

Last week, I pointed out that MySpace’s Data Availability efforts were welcome in that they expand the number of sites on which a user can use her MySpace data, but that MySpace still had a lock on the user data since it hosted and determined who could display that data by approving site partners. If MySpace’s efforts were three steps forward in opening up user profiles, then Google’s Friend Connect represents two steps back.

The use of the IFrame means that site owners have no way to change or work with user data, they can only display it. MySpace doesn’t allow sites to store user data on anyone’s servers other than its own, but it does allow that data to be used directly in the outside site. For more differences among the three services, please check out the chart below.

While none of these services are entirely open yet — and may never be, given security and data abuse problems — the trend toward a more social web is clear. With broadband more prevalent than ever and voice fading as the primary means of communicating with people who aren’t in the room, enabling a truly open social web is the next big step in communication. But in order for that to happen, the user needs to be able to reach across walled gardens and gain granular control as to what he or she shares and with whom.

There’s open source (really open in that anyone with knowledge can participate in how the code evolves), open standards (open only in that anyone can participate using a pre-defined version of the standard), and open APIs (open in that anyone can take the pre-defined standard and build something for a closed platform such as Facebook). Knowing this, the efforts to open up a user’s data on a social network (their social graph, if you will) by these three companies falls somewhere between an open platform and an open standard.

Facebook Connect (not launched yet) Google Friend Connect MySpace Data Availability Standards Used Social Data That’s Shared Getting Access to the Data Time Frame Launch Partners Where Data is stored and displayed Privacy
unknown, but Facebook API is likely OAuth, OpenID, OpenSocial OAuth
basic profile information, profile picture, friends, photos, events, groups Applications built with OpenSocial, contacts, activities on participating sites published back to a news feed Profiles, friends, photos and videos
unknown Web site owners must apply to Google and be accepted Web site owners must agree to MySpace terms and conditions, but MySpace will allow anyone who doesn’t abuse the user data to participate
will launch within a few weeks First 12-24 sites will go live in the next few days and the rest of the web will take a few more months Launched on May 8 and adding more partners within the next few weeks
unannounced Plaxo, Orkut, Hi5 and Facebook Yahoo!, Twitter, eBay and Photobucket
unannounced On Google servers and displayed only via an iFrame On MySpace Servers, but can be displayed however the participating site wishes
A user’s privacy settings will follow him around the web Users opt in to Friend Connect and can limit their profile sharing to existing contacts only; a user can elect on which sites he wants to share his activities, can also instantly change privacy settings across all participating sites Users can control their privacy settings (right now, only which sites get access to their data) on a central page. Partner sites must accept changes in real time and sharing profile data is an opt-in service

Technology-News: GigaOm

Two Tech Events, Two Different Worlds

This Friday marks the beginning of South by Southwest in Austin, starting with the Interactive Festival. Every year, geeks galore descend on my hometown, only to be replaced by filmmakers and then musicians. The geeks are my favorites, but you knew I’d say that.

As a reporter I look forward to the event, and as a resident I bemoan the lack of parking downtown, the full restaurants and the deluge of hipsters alternately making plans to move here or dissing the place for its provincialism. This year’s interactive lineup has an impressive array of companies who have built their business on the web, from Yahoo and Google to startups such as Facebook and MOG.

And 1,700 miles away in the colder climate of Philadelphia, about 1,200 network engineers will gather to perform the less-celebrated task of making sure the Internet keeps humming along. The Internet Engineering Task Force is holding one of its thrice-annual meetings to talk about the transition to IPv6, the problem of building faster routers when there’s ever more routing information to take into consideration, and a host of other issues relating to the core of the Internet.

Listening to Jari Arkko, an area director for the IETF, talk about the goals at this IETF meeting, it struck me how much the Internet has changed technology. I’m very much a hardware geek, in love with data center infrastructure, networking and chips, so I am now amazed at what a technology company can do without this level of engineering.

In the early days of the Internet, many of these technology firms had to at least figure out their data center architectures and how they would deliver and support their online shopping sites or web auction houses. But thanks to hosted services, that’s less important today. You no longer have to be a techie to start a technology company.

This is great for the billions of people using the Internet to access services and content, and speaks to the maturity of the web. However, it’s important to give credit where credit is due. So while the technology companies attending SXSW are slamming down the drinks and hobnobbing with the digerati, let’s take a moment to toast the engineers who make it all possible. And for those network engineers in Philly, it’s Beer Week up there next week, so sneak out of those plenary sessions and toss one back. Hack into my online bank account, and it’s on me.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Google Sites Now Live To Collaborate

Google acquired JotSpot eons ago, so long ago that one almost forgets about the wiki company and its founder, Joe Krause. Apparently Google didn’t let it go to waste. It is now the underpinning of Google Sites, a web-based collaboration software service that is going to be part of the Google Apps and will be available later on Thursday.

It is a simple and easy way to build a web site where you can share information with your team, including files, calendars and presentations. You can put content from other Google products, including YouTube, Google Calendar and Picasa. Google hopes that small business, wide-spread teams, classrooms and even political organizations would use this new offering in tandem with its current Google App offerings.

google_sites_intranet_page.gifGoogle is not the first one to make a collaboration available — 37Signals’ Basecamp, Microsoft ’s Office Live WorkSpace, Zoho and GoPlan come to mind — but it has come up a pretty compelling offering that is going to challenge competitors.

“Creating a team web site has always been too complicated, requiring dedicated hardware and software as well as programming skills,” said Dave Girouard, vice president and general manager of enterprise, Google.

I was pleasantly surprised by new offerings’ ease of use. Sure, some power users are going to be disappointed but I suspect a majority will find its simplicity appealing. Moreover, it is tightly integrated with Google Apps, which would make its adoption easier, just like Google Docs and Google Talk.

google_sites_employee_profile.gifI bet like me, no one wants to deal with another wiki. Funny how Google is taking a page out of Microsoft’s playbook, and offering an “integrated suite.”

WebWorkerDaily, which follows collaboration software quite closely had outlined similar approach.

Take GMail, GCal, plus Google Docs & Spreadsheets and you could manage a project reasonably well…If you wanted dashboard or notification-type features, you’d probably have to custom-build them yourself, though, and that’s a serious undertaking.

Looks like Google fixed that problem. My initial enthusiasm aside, I am still withholding final judgement on this product for now. Like most Google apps, the limitations become obvious after one has had a week or two and real-work situations to put the service through, a case in point being the marginal IMAP experience on GMail.

Related Post: An in-depth review of Google Sites over on WebWorkerDaily

Technology-News: GigaOm

The Operators vs. the Media Brands


Chetan Sharma is co-author of upcoming “Mobile Advertising” (John Wiley) and “Mobile Broadband” (IEEE Press). He is an adviser to several operators and media brands around the world.

Over the last three months, there has been significant discussion around the notion of “open access,” with Apple promising to release its developer kit for the iPhone; Sprint Nextel launching its WiMAX business, XOHM; Verizon Wireless saying it will open up its network and platform; Google’s efforts around Android and a possible gPhone; and the 700 MHz auction. The two massive industries of communications and media/online are clearly at loggerheads. How this battle shapes up over the course of the next few months will define how you and I will consume media, entertainment and information.

Media companies and mobile operators think about customers differently. Operators are focused on subscriber acquisitions, while media companies are fanatic about audience acquisitions. Operators think in terms of adding a few hundred thousand subscribers a month — media companies, of millions. In the Telco 2.0 world, where service providers aspire to become media and entertainment brands, shouldn’t operators be thinking like media companies? Shouldn’t they be more focused on audience acquisition strategies — selling their goods beyond the confines of today’s existing barriers?

If we look at the strategic canvas of the mobile data industry, it’s clear that operators currently have a huge advantage over media brands. Mobile operators’ advantage in the current landscape comes from their superior reach, as well as the capability they have to segment and profile users. Their current influence over the ecosystem is a magnitude ahead of media brands. However, in other areas, such as user experience, content, and the ability to be quick to market — media brands have a stronger strategic footing, and they will use it to close the gap in the other areas.

Too much ink has been wasted on the equation of being a dumb pipe. Dumb does not imply little or no value. For operators, nothing is more troubling than the insinuation that they will be reduced to bit pipes, becoming utilitarians tasked with keeping the streets clean while the media companies zoom past them in their Ferraris. Yet operators need to realize their unique value propositions, come to terms with both what they are great at and not, and structure their monetization strategies accordingly. The growth of the nascent mobile advertising industry is largely dependent on it.

While it is conceivable that some operators can become content and mobile advertising powerhouses, the evidence points us elsewhere. Operators and media companies sit at the exact opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of cultural and media savviness. Mobile operators are very engineering focused and extremely conservative in their approach to the critical operational aspects of running a cellular network. Media companies, on the other hand, come up with the most creative ways to express a brand message in a landscape that would burst the brains of the very brightest network operators with all of its consumer nuances and related myriad creative intricacies.

To be successful over the long term, operators need to focus on the unique elements that only they can provide — such as location, presence, user profiles and platforms for applications; as well as device and network APIs — and build business models around abstracting this information so that the ecosystem can utilize them to enhance user experience and usage. Such an approach will enhance their competitiveness in the media ecosystem, keep the usage and ARPU levels up, and get more entrepreneurs and users involved in moving the industry to its next milestone.

Such an ecosystem will also empower entrepreneurs to keep pushing the boundaries of technical and business innovations to make mobile media and advertising a sustainable, vibrant and scalable industry at a much faster pace — and will help deliver on the promise of “open access” better than any rules in the 700 MHz auction. This shift in mindset (and subsequent execution of the resulting strategy) will have a direct impact on any viable mobile content and advertising strategy. Advertisers look for an audience, precise targeting, and measurement. If operators can help deilver that, then their media strategy will flourish, but if three years down the road, media brands have five times the audience…well you know what happens next.

Technology-News: GigaOm

5 Who Won’t Appreciate Google Android


Written by Thomas Howe, co-founder and CEO of The Thomas Howe Company, winners of the 2007 O’Reilly Emerging Communications Mashup Competition. His blog is about voice mashups and communication-enhanced business processes.

Far from being science experiments, open-source projects are powerful forces in both technology and business, especially when they are commercially supported and community-backed. Android is the Open Handset Alliance’s open and free mobile platform, backed by Google and 30 other technology and mobile companies, and for good reason will be a major player in the mobile world for some time to come.

Open-source efforts have many fundamental advantages. Over time, they produce higher-quality code than proprietary efforts, and they reduce the costs of development. They also speed up schedules, lower the barriers to entry for many service providers and vendors, and level the playing field for all. The mobile world needs an open-source platform in which it can invest, and not only is it here, but it’s backed by the best.

So given all this, what’s not to like?

As Dr. Phil would say, even the thinnest pancake still has two sides. Even though Android will be important for technical reasons — and these may have secondary effects in the marketplace — whether or not Android will really solve the problems that currently beset mobile carriers is up for debate. Will Android provide mobile application developers with a revenue-sharing model that carriers will support? Unlikely. Will Android’s open software usher in a world in which carriers tear down their walled gardens? No, probably not.

Even though many developers and enterprise IT shops will profit from Android, many others won’t have such a positive experience. From where I sit, here’s my list of unfortunates who find themselves on the frying-pan side of the Android pancake:

  1. The 110 million U.S. mobile subscribers that currently have contracts with AT&T and Verizon. AT&T and Verizon are not currently members of the Open Handset Alliance, nor are numerous other large wireless carriers worldwide.

  2. Nokia, Microsoft, Palm, RIMM and Qualcomm, who now have to fight against yet another smart phone OS, further fracturing the market. It’s difficult to see the benefit of OS proliferation to anyone, especially to consumers and carriers. It’s possible that Android becomes the platform of choice, but I seem to remember hearing the same story about Linux.

  3. Android developers, who don’t have a single handset on which to deploy their applications, and will have to debug the application on each new handset as it comes out. Fellow blogger Alec Saunders tells me that his recent engineering study identified over 30 realistic combinations of handset, OS and carrier for the North American market alone. Perhaps a side benefit of Android to the larger economy is a future increase in the homologation workforce, and probably just in time to catch all those ISDN dialect jocks. (This might be a good time to remind ourselves that the customer experience successes of Apple can be directly tied to the fact that they don’t have to contend with variations in hardware or platform.)

  4. The support departments of Sprint and T-Mobile, who will get calls from customers when some unauthorized program doesn’t work. See previous point. I wonder if the practical nature of Android development might in some way parallel PBX development, where even though the basic problem is quite simple, the practical realities of 400 features, or in this case 30 handsets from numerous carriers, bars very small companies from success.

  5. Everybody else in the world, because the problem in mobile application innovation is not a dearth of compelling mobile applications. The problem is that people don’t know these great applications exist, and it’s hard to see how an open mobile framework solves this problem. Even if it did, most mobile applications face another barrier: they force the user to change their habits. Unfortunately, the proliferation of user interfaces and frameworks exacerbates this problem, and yet another framework like Android is not the solution.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Year-End Folly: Pin the Tail on the Stocks


Predictions — like a fatty snack at a New Year’s Eve party, or that last glass of champagne in the wee hours of the morning, you are almost sure to regret them, yet sometimes you just can’t help yourself.

So although I can do without the trans-fat and am willing to forgo the bubbly, this year I can’t pass up a few lingering minutes at the crystal ball. To that end, I’ve taken seven of the more interesting stocks of 2007 and ranked them according to how I think they’ll perform in 2008. They are all stocks that inspired a good deal of passionate discussion and, for the most part, a good deal of capital gains.

First, listed in order of their 2007 price gains, the seven stocks I’ll look at are:

  • Research In Motion (RIMM), up 166.3 percent
  • Amazon.com (AMZN), up 134.8 percent
  • Apple (AAPL), up 134.7 percent
  • Google (GOOG), up 50.2 percent
  • Microsoft (MSFT), up 20.9 percent
  • eBay (EBAY), up 10.4 percent
  • Yahoo (YHOO), down 8.9 percent

Before I make my forecast, the usual disclosure: As investment advice, this list is worth exactly as much as the money I’m putting in them: zero dollars and zero cents. The only advice implied here is not to confuse a year-end parlor game with trading ideas. And as always, feel free to leave your own list or your thoughts in the comments.

  1. Google. Time and again, it’s been a mistake to bet against this stock. It may have an off quarter now and then and it may draw bad press, but the company still rules search. A slow economy would dry up ad dollars in general, but search ads might benefit as advertisers seek out the cheapest way to get their message to consumers. And if Google Apps make an impact, 2008 could be the year when Google brings in non-search revenue.

  2. Yahoo. Yes, good ole black-and-blue Yahoo. 2008 will be a make-or-break year for the company, but 2007 was so hard on the stock that even a moderate recovery in profits could propel it higher. Like Google, it could benefit if weakness in print and television ads end up driving more ad dollars online.

  3. Apple. The only thing standing in the way of this company’s path to even more fortune are its own potential missteps. Notably, William Safire predicted today a “pod push-back” that could damage Apple. I don’t see it, but it is interesting to note the meme of an Apple backlash is drawing mainstream mention.

  4. Amazon.com. The stock has always been on a rollercoaster: $5 in 2002, $60 in 2003, $25 in 2006 and $95 just last week. The pendulum-like pattern suggests a selloff in 2008, but I think it’s more likely to see a merely moderate year. For a compelling longer-term argument in favor of Amazon, see this post from Fred Wilson.

  5. eBay. Another flat-ish year for the company, I suspect, with growing investor impatience if it continues to merely tread water. Bears have been grumbling for some time that eBay would be better off split into three. That idea could gain steam if earnings start to disappoint.

  6. Research In Motion. I don’t have anything against the company or its outlook, but I think this is a case of solid financials distorted by speculative enthusiasm. The stock’s 3 percent drop on the last day of the year could signal that investors are ready for a pullback.

  7. Microsoft. Despite Steve Ballmer’s success in turning around this battleship, Microsoft remains most vulnerable to a slowdown in corporate IT spending. Beyond 2008, the company will do fine, but I think there’s a risk of a setback before then.

The wild card in all this is the overall economic forecast, which is as uncertain and hard to call as it’s been in a long time. Still, even though nobody knows how bad or how long the credit crunch will hurt, so far it hasn’t come close to curbing consumer appetite for innovative tech gadgets, which is good news for companies like Apple. And as long as it doesn’t slow overseas growth, that’s good news for companies like Google.

So there’s my list. Now to make it even more interesting, I created an entirely random list to compare to my own. Similar to tossing darts at a newspaper’s stock pages, I assigned each of these seven stocks a random integer, then ranked them (as I did the two lists above) in descending order. Here’s the outcome:

  1. eBay
  2. Research In Motion
  3. Yahoo
  4. Apple
  5. Google
  6. Microsoft
  7. Amazon.com

As much thought as I put into my own list, I have to say the contrarian in me is rooting for the randomizer.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Google’s Death Knol For Some?

In some strange, twisted sort of a way, Google’s foray into social content, aka Knols, is a tip of the hat to entities whose results have started to show up really high in the search results — Wikipedia and Mahalo, for example. Mathew Ingram points out this can hurt not only them, but others as well. It is also a sign that Google (GOOG) is finally beginning to show its monopolist claws.

It is also a tactical admission by a company that believed that the machine was more powerful than the “human” that it isn’t the case. First, what are knols? Udi Manber, Google’s VP of Engineering describes knols as …

…a new, free tool that we are calling “knol”, which stands for a unit of knowledge. Our goal is to encourage people who know a particular subject to write an authoritative article about it…A knol on a particular topic is meant to be the first thing someone who searches for this topic for the first time will want to read.

He goes on to extoll the virtues of authors, and how they need to be highlighted. This is a smackdown on Wikipedia, where the individual contributions remain part of the collective and are not the focus — and rightfully so. As Nick Carr writes,

For the past year, Chief Wikipedian Jimmy Wales has been doing a lot of trash-talking about taking on Google in the search business. Now Google’s striking back.

Whether it will be successful or not remains to be seen. Now if you think about it, the knol, despite its fancy name, is nothing but a classic move by a quasi-monopolist that wants to ensure it keeps getting the raw material (in this case, content on knols) for free, so that it can keep selling it at a premium. I stopped believing in Google’s “do no evil” ethos a long time ago, so that is why I am worried by comments this like from Manber:

Our job in Search Quality will be to rank the knols appropriately when they appear in Google search results.

Which is to say that they won’t start making knols appear higher in the search results. Maybe it is the jet lag, but I don’t see knols as revolutionary as others are making them out to be. After all, you can set up a blog, make an expert page, maintain it and even put Google Ad Sense to monetize it. So how does this make knols special?

Sure there are APIs that allow knols to be shared with others, and Google maintains that it won’t give special weight to the knols, but who’s to know what they do inside their four walls. Search Engine Land’s Danny Sullivan, who has the single best post on this subject, is a bit disconcerted by knols, it seems.

Google using its page rank system to its own benefit. Think of it this way: Google’s mysterious Page Rank system is what Internet Explorer was to Microsoft in the late 1990s: a way to control the destiny of others.

(Check out my interview with Jimmy Wales of Wikipedia)

Technology-News: GigaOm

Harsh Reality Of Verizon’s Open Network

Consider the recently unveiledany app, any device” initiative by Verizon Wireless in the context of the company’s latest quarterly results.

The wireless unit of Verizon (VZ) reported year-over-year subscriber growth of 12 percent, but a mere 5 percent rise in voice revenues. Data revenue saved the day, surging 63 percent and lifting the company to 15 percent revenue growth overall. Data revenue per user increased 43 percent, while voice revenue per user declined 5 percent — pushing data to 20 percent of revenues from 14 percent.

The same report revealed a 10 percent decline in residential access lines. The voice business of Verizon Wireless, in other words, seems to have entered the same cycle of contraction suffered by Verizon’s wireline business in recent years. Joining the open access bandwagon promises to keep data revenues growing strongly, but CEO Lowell McAdam faces some mighty difficult choices as the 80:20 ratio of voice to data revenues reverses. The legacy pricing model incorporates price discrimination that will prove awkward to preserve.

Consider the lucrative SMS business of shipping 160 character messages for 10 cents each, or roughly $1,000 per megabyte. What happens when all devices cleanly incorporate instant messaging? “Any app, any device” means VoIP-capable devices that transparently support voice and web browsing via data plans. Why would someone pay Verizon an extra $40 per month for voice services? Any data plan that makes video affordable makes voice essentially free.

Does Verizon really have enough conviction to price without discrimination by application type? McAdam said pricing for the bring-your-own-device crowd will be “competitive” and “usage-based.” Even assuming other carriers follow Verizon’s lead to create competition, does “usage” refer to bit volume or application type?

“Any app, any device” sounds like it eliminates the long list of acceptable use prohibitions associated with existing data plans — quite a change of heart for the company. Verizon only recently settled a lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General Cuomo for terminating the accounts of customers with so-called “unlimited” Internet plans for unwittingly violating the plans through activities such as downloading movies.

It may already be too late for Verizon to back away from the edge. Anything short of a fully open network, neutral to bit type, seems likely to turn the PR love fest into user backlash. In any case, no one expects Verizon to embrace the “faster, cheaper” mantra necessary to fully earn induction into the infocom future.

We can suspend our disbelief until the pricing details arrive in January, but the unintended consequences of the announcement likely represent the best hope for progress. Verizon’s vision of the future may not have changed much. It just gets easier to read the writing on the wall when your back is up against it.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Google’s Infrastructure is its Strategic Advantage

Back in the day, when PC stocks were kings on Wall Street, a pesky college kid named Michael Dell figured out that he could do an end run around the then-established PC makers by developing a smarter way of making and selling boxes. His strategy was simple: get components and PCs from the factories in Asia to the U.S. as fast as possible, but only after he had charged for the machine.

By squeezing the supply chain as hard as he could, he turned Dell into a fearsome (and loathsome) competitor. With his help, the supply chain for the PC era came to consist of foundries, ships, U.S. assembly plants and UPS trucks. Google (GOOG), with over $200 billion in market capitalization, is following a similar strategy, fine tuning and adapting it for the Web & broadband.

Instead of trucks and assembly plants, however, Google’s supply chain is made up of fiber networks, data centers, switches, servers and storage devices. From that perspective, its business model is no different than that of Dell’s (DELL): Google has to deliver search results (information, if you want to be generous about their other projects) as fast as possible at as low a cost as possible.

To better understand Google and its business model, one needs to break it down into three data inputs.

  • Relevancy of results.
  • Speed of search.
  • Cost of executing a search query.

While their results aren’t optimal, they are good enough. Just like Microsoft Windows was good enough to dominate the market. Google, according to Hitwise, now has 64 percent of the total search market. And although a typical Google query can often be an act of futility, we put up with it because the results are fast. If they’re wrong, we can just start all over again.

The faster the results show up on our browsers, the less inclined we’ll be to switch to a rival search engine, no matter how great the rival’s search methodology may be. The faster (and more efficient) its infrastructure, the more easily Google can keep serving the ad-based money machine.

In other words, the company has to make sure that the speed of its search is really, really fast. Any random search on Google these days takes between 0.12 to 0.06 seconds. Now that is really, really fast. Google does this by indexing the Internet quite well. The magic is in delivering the search results from this index at lightening speed, and that requires an infrastructure — oodles of bandwidth and specialized hardware — that is finely tuned, much like a Formula One Car.

Against this backdrop, it makes perfect sense for Google to build their own servers, storage systems, Internet switches and perhaps, sometime in the future, even optical transport systems. Let me rephrase that: Imagine connecting thousands of hosts (storage and server systems) at speeds of, say, 10 gigabits per second, in a manner that allows any-to-any connections.

The number of racks, fiber, routers and everything in between is mind-boggling. If this system were built using gear from established hardware makers, it would take a superhuman effort to make it all work together. In other words, the sheer cost to keep such a beast going would suck up a major component of the infrastructure.

A better option is to have gear that is customized for your processes, ones in which you have a major operational expenditure advantage. In the telecom bubble, large service providers were brought to their knees by operational expenditures.

With the exception of optical systems, Google has built or is building the gear. It has been rumored to be a big buyer of dark fiber to connect its data centers, which helps explain why the company spent nearly $3.8 billion over the past seven quarters on capital expenditures.

You can argue that building customized gear is an expensive strategy, but when you are the scale of Google, it starts to become less of an issue. Why? Because process-optimized infrastructure ensures that Google’s cost of executing a query keep going down.

To sum it up, Google’s gigantic infrastructure is the big barrier to entry for its rivals, and will remain so, as long as the company keeps spending billions on it. That said, there’s another thing Google could learn from Dell: Maintain the quality of your search results — customers will only put up with shoddiness for so long.

Note #1: Ethan, you are absolutely right about the software aspect of Google architecture, and I was going to do a separate post. This one is already 750 words.

Note #2: Earth2Tech has a post about Google’s vertically integrated green energy strategy.

Technology-News: GigaOm

So Google Will Bid For Spectrum. Will It Play To Win?

For the past few months, Google CEO Eric Schmidt has hinted at every opportunity that Google (GOOG) will bid for the auction of the 700 MHz spectrum. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that they issued a press release today and confirmed that they will bid on the so-called C-block of the 700 MHz spectrum.Big deal — because Google is not in it to win it. Like in an opening move in a game of high-stakes poker, Google will place an opening bet, but is unlikely to raise it.Google CEO Eric Schmidt in the press release said:

No matter which bidder ultimately prevails, the real winners of this auction are American consumers who likely will see more choices than ever before in how they access the Internet.

Excuse me, that ain’t the language of a winner. Chris Sacca, Google’s head of special initiatives, in a blog post continues this “consumer-a-winner” theme, though clearly if Google did win this one, it is the winner first, and maybe…just maybe consumers. [Paint me cynical, but I like this change-the-world-consumer-first drivel from presidential candidates, not from for-profit companies with lofty valuations to protect.]

As I had pointed out earlier, FCC Chairman Kevin Martin included some of the Google proposals as part of the rules for this auction, hoping that would attract Google to the bidding process, and help drive up the prices of the spectrum being auctioned.The other companies playing with some seriousness here are AT&T, Verizon and a bunch of others. AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson confirmed his intentions at a Churchill Club event, while Verizon has been doing its best to ensure its win.

In case you want to know what the whole 700 MHz fuss is all about, here are two posts that tell you everything about 700 MHz.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Five Computer Clouds Are All We Need

Written by Baris Karadogan, a partner at Comventures

“I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”

088.gif This is a famous misquote attributed to Thomas J. Watson Sr., then-president of IBM, in an apparent misjudgment of the PC market’s potential. As the story goes, under Watson’s leadership, IBM — which invented the PC — didn’t have a vision as to how big the market could become and let others, especially Microsoft, get the lion’s share of the value creation.

But maybe five computers are all we need. My friend Ray Conley, of Palo Alto Investors, made a good case over lunch one day that the statement could indeed be true if you think of the computer in the cloud sense. Could five computer “clouds” really allow us to do everything we want? The answer is yes, and they can already be found with Google; Amazon; Salesforce.com; either Sun Microsystems or VMWare; and Akamai.

First up is Google (GOOG), for consumer apps. Google can not only take care of all our email, social networking, sharing and blogging needs, but has the means to offer these apps online. Incidentally, Facebook can offer all of these apps as well, save for search. A 2008 prediction could be that they actually do something big on the search front, but I digress.

Next up is Amazon (AMZN) — not for their ecommerce solutions, but for their web services, which I’ve previously compared to semiconductor fabs. They represent the consumer infrastructure cloud. Any consumer Internet app first needs to be hosted somewhere, whether it be on Google or Facebook. Very few companies have the ability to build a big, global data center, but Amazon has one you can use, and pay for by the byte.

With the consumer apps and infrastructure clouds covered, let’s turn to the enterprise side. After all, anybody in front of a PC looks either like an employee or a consumer.

No. 3, therefore, is Salesforce.com (CRM). Just as Google gives you your consumer apps, Salesforce gives you your enterprise apps. Their cloud takes care of all the things you need to get your job done. And just like Google, they are open to third parties who will develop on their platform.

The fourth slot belongs to the enabler of the enterprise infrastructure via control of servers, storage, etc. The owner of this cloud is nebulous. Sun Microsystems (JAVAD) has products and solutions for backend infrastructure, while VMWare is taking care of servers on the front end. I am leaning towards VMWare (VMW), but there is a good case to be made for Sun as well. You take your pick.

The final spot is reserved for the one that gets all the bits to you — the cloud that has the intelligence to move things around. None of the other four work without it. It’s a CDN, and is best represented by Akamai (AKAM).

There you have it. If these companies could completely dominate their spaces, and kill every competitor, you’d be fine doing what you are doing on only five clouds.

OK, so who cares?

Well, from a venture capital investment perspective, if your company can knock out any one of these five, you have estate-making potential on your hands. Even if your company merely complements one of these clouds, you can still do well — either ride their platform or become one of their takeover targets. If you are trying to create a new kind of cloud, however, you may have a problem.

There is a public company investment angle here, too. These companies — call them the “T.J. Watson Portfolio” — are very well-positioned to win over the long term. Just to show you guys I am willing to put my money where my mouth is, follow my profile on zecco.com (covestor version coming soon), and let’s see if I’m right.

Technology-News: GigaOm

More Details About Google’s Gigabit Switches

Andrew Schmitt did some great reporting and broke the story about Google building its own 10-GigBE switches, designed specifically to meet its needs. Andrew had reported that Google was building the switches using Broadcom’s silicon.

Following up on Andrew’s report, we have learnt that these are early days for this particular core switch project, which will have either 24 or 48 ports. It is early days for this switch and Google is (GOOG) playing around with various prototypes. There are some latency concerns with Broadcom (BRCM), and as a result, there is an opening for other silicon vendors, with Fulcrum Micro being viewed as a worthy competitor.

This is a core switch project, but not the only one.

Google has another switch project that uses silicon from Fulcrum Micro. These switches are designed and made by Quanta, the same Taiwanese company that makes iPods and OLPC devices. This switch will have 20 or 24 1 Gigabit Ethernet or 16-24 ports of 10GigBE, and uplinks to 4×10GbE links which are either copper or optical. This particular device aggregates Google’s wall ‘o servers.

This particular switch features a stripped-down routing software that is based on the code provided by Level7, a company that was acquired by Broadcom. The device has been optimized for Google’s needs, we are told.

A quick scan of Google’s job listings site confirms that the company has been actively recruiting for these products. In addition to seeking experts in gigabit and 10 gigabit switching technologies, Google is also looking for engineers familiar with optoelectronics components that can be used with what Google describes as “next-generation networking technologies.”

Technology-News: GigaOm

Take Two: Google’s Wireless Ambitions

Google’s mobile ambitions have by now been widely articulated in the media, and after my initial post, I spent some time on the phone with various people discussing whether or not it made any financial sense for Google to be chasing the wireless dream. Many of the folks I chatted with expressed reservations about Google actually building a network, and felt that the company is using a big stick to get U.S. carriers to get a move on.

The FCC, for instance, has offered Google (GOOG) some measured encouragement in the hopes that the firm’s involvement in the wireless auctions would help push the prices up past the $10 billion mark. Google is, after all, obligated to make at least a minimum bid of $4.6 billion since the FCC agreed to their “Open Access” requirements for the C Block.

Secondly, this is going to be one expensive exercise for them. Assuming they win the 700 MHz auction and it costs them about $5 billion and another $2 billion in network buildout costs — that means a little less than $1 per share in lost income. Of course there is also the question of management focus, something that is much more difficult to quantify. By the way, our good friend, Ben Schacter who follows Google for UBS Research helped with the math here:

Think of it as not getting the interest on $7b and then tax affect it. So assume $7b multiplied by 5% (interest rate), then a 26% tax rate = about $260 million a year in lost income, or well less than $1.00 per share.

I think I am being conservative here. According to UBS estimates, the cost to build out the network is going to be about $25 a pop in urban markets and as much as $40 a pop in suburban markets, adding up to a total of between $8 billion and $10 billion. Of course, the operational costs of maintaining a nationwide network are humungous, never mind the service-support infrastructure.

The more I think about it, the less likely it seems that Google is going to build their own network. My guess is that they are going to try and participate via investments in other efforts. I had outlined one crazy scenario last week. Nevertheless, it is fun to see Google drive the wireless carriers batty with its posturing, and at the same time get what it really wants.

Technology-News: GigaOm

The Amazing Rise of WebKit Mobile

safari.jpegThe Google Android SDK, released yesterday, confirmed what had been long been rumored: Google’s mobile platform uses WebKit, an open source browser engine . “We have been working on our mobile implementation of WebKit for quite some time,” someone from the Android team wrote on The Surfing Safari, the official blog of the WebKit community.

Given how much Google has helped Firefox, its choice of WebKit strikes me as hugely significant for the browser market. Such an endorsement is only going to increase the importance of WebKit’s growing presence in the mobile ecosystem.

WebKit is an open source web browser engine. WebKit is also the name of the Mac OS X system framework version of the engine that’s used by Safari, Dashboard, Mail, and many other OS X applications. WebKit’s HTML and JavaScript code began as a branch of the KHTML and KJS libraries from KDE.

Even though Opera is still the mobile browser to beat, WebKit-based browsers are fast becoming a common presence in some of the newer mobile platforms. In addition to Google’s Android, WebKit has found a home inside the Apple iPhone platform as well as the Nokia-backed Symbian S60 phones, such as the N and E Series devices.

If you take the total number of the N and E Series phones and iPhones, my back-of-the-envelope (and highly unscientific) estimates put the number of handsets using WebKit-based browsers at over 30 million.

In the desktop domain, the growing popularity of Mac OS X computers has resulted in the WebKit-based Safari grabbing between 3 and 5 percent of the total browser market share, thereby making it the third most popular browser after Microsoft Internet Explorer and Mozilla Firefox.

The real opportunity for WebKit seems to be in the mobile world, where no browser has been able to establish an IE-like hegemony. Sam Sidler, who has been working on the open source Camino browser, in a recent essay wrote,

Mobile browsing is still very much in its infancy, but innovation on the mobile platform is moving faster than ever. What you are able to do today on your cell phone (surf the Web, view digital media) isn’t anywhere near what you’ll be doing in five years

The growing popularity of WebKit, according to some of my browser guru sources, is due to the fact that it’s easier to code for compared with other browser engines. It also has a well-organized and smaller code base, which is easier to manage. Finally, it is quite fast and renders faster, which makes it attractive to developers.

More importantly, however, WebKit has a smaller footprint, which means it has less memory and CPU requirements and as such, is ideal for the mobile environments. Apple’s (and now Google’s) mobile ambitions have prompted the company to devote a lot of resources to WebKit, turning it into a viable mobile platform. In comparison, IE Challenger, Firefox and its Gecko engine are only getting started in their mobile efforts. They’ll have to cover a lot of ground before they even catch up with WebKit.

Technology-News: GigaOm

The Time Has Come for IPv6

The time has finally come for the world to migrate to IPv6 from IPv4 -– or at least that was the message delivered by a collection of networking experts at the RIPE 55 conference late last month in Amsterdam. Out of this conference came a hilarious and very geeky song about how this change to IPv6 will more than likely cause operations and routing issues for network operators throughout the Internet. Regardless, it appears that the addressing scheme for every device on the Internet may finally be set for a transition — and the networking issues that may ensue could be far-reaching.

Taking a step back, it is absolutely clear that IPv6 offers significant networking advances, such as the ability to provide more addresses for devices on the Internet (3.4×1038 addresses total as compared to IPv4’s 4.2 billion address), an easier way for devices to autoconfigure their own addresses, a built-in mechanism for multicast and data security using IPsec. All of the IPv6 features promise to make the Internet scale better, support new services and have tighter security.

And while that is a good thing for the Internet, what is not so good is the probable pain of transition. After 20 years of building, running and fixing issues on networks running IPv4, moving onto IPv6 for a network operator is like ending of a relationship – painful but inevitable, and with the promise of meeting someone even better right around the corner.

As a simple example, according to a RIPE 55 presentation on the global state of IPv6, the number of prefixes (networks or portions of networks) running the new protocol is close to 1,000. Compare that to the number of global IPv4 prefixes — upwards of 200,000 and counting (and to the networking experts out there, I am aware that the addressing allocations and mechanisms in IPv6 allow for greater aggregation, thus reducing the overall number of global prefixes). Even with the number of prefixes on IPv6 an order of magnitude less on IPv4, there are routing issues that network operators will need to deal with on a daily basis. Those routing problems lead to packets that travel in loops, disappear into routing black holes and are hard for experts to diagnose because of the lack of operations tools and experience. And that is without the widespread use of IPv6 multihoming, the ability for an organization to use two different network operators for connectivity and not commit to a monogamous relationship. Like dating two different people, splitting your packets between two network operators can cause problems as well.

Even vendors that have had IPv6 support in their products for years, such as Juniper (JNPR), still see significant issues on their firewalls and need to resolve them. In fairness, all networking vendors have bugs in nearly every networking protocol — including IPv4 — but the lack of operational experience by the network operators makes debugging these issues harder and more time-consuming. It is clear to everyone that IPv6 is still in its infancy when it comes to global scale and operations. That translates into slower web sites, more downtime and fewer Google (GOOG) ads delivered.

So what is a typical organization to do? If you’ve been focusing on your web 2.0 application and ignoring the network as technology that just works, the time has come to learn about networking and IPv6. If you’re going to have a significant web presence in the next few years, you will want to use more than one network operator for Internet connectivity and that will undoubtedly result in new operational issues as IPv6 networks interconnect, the prefix counts increase and more multihoming gets put to use.

There is a new girl in town, her name is IPv6 and she’s clearly better than your old flame. Yet, like all relationships, there will be some bumps along the way and it will take some time for you to get used to each other. I suspect that we’ll be hearing a few new songs from the networking geeks in the near future, perhaps this time with a tune that you can dance to.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Will Privacy Concerns Take the Boom out of Online Ads?

The world eagerly awaits the Facebook’s social advertising platform, likely to be announced on November 6th at the Ad:Tech conference in New York. The new advertising innovation is said to be a rival to Google’s (GOOG) AdSense, prompting some to label the opportunity big enough to deem Facebook a (ludicrous sounding) $100 billion company.

Add to this upcoming announcement, recent frenzy of mergers and acquisitions, and private equity investments such as the $100 million infusion into Specific Media, what you have is a online advertising (bubble or) boom of unprecedented proportions.

Much of this fervor is inspired by behavioral targeting, where advertisers can use sophisticated cookie technology to highly target ads to individuals. The same behavioral targeting approach, however is beginning to risk the ire of privacy advocates and is coming under extreme scrutiny by the US Government.

Privacy Groups are proposing a do-no-track list, which is I guess a web version of the dubious, Do-not-call list. According to Advertising Age, “Privacy advocates say current standards for collecting such data, such as the Network Advertising Initiative, don’t do enough to safeguard consumers against the potential pitfalls of data collection, and that most consumers don’t understand how such data is being used.”

The debate, which so far seems to restricted to the Beltway crowd is starting to spill into the mainstream press. This being the political season, and privacy concerns being politically-popular fodder, expect to see more noise level, which might result in if nothing, increased headaches for online advertising companies.

The groups backing this Do-Not-Track-List are your usual suspects: the Center for Democracy and Technology, Consumer Action, Consumer Federation of America and the Electronic Frontier Foundation. The Federal Trade Commission is going to host a Town Hall entitled “Ehavioral Advertising: Tracking, Targeting, and Technology” starting today.

Google is responding by setting up a Google privacy channel, and attending the FTC Townhall. Other advertising industry executives such as Dave Morgan, chairman of Tacoda, a company owned by AOL dismisses their concerns and says this is an “advocate looking for a cause.” (What’s ironic, is that his dismissive attitude is in sharp contrast with his corporate master, AOL’s willingness to play bal