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Content Tagged with Featured + iphone

Is 3G Ready for the iPhone Stress Test?

In a few hours from now, there is a good chance that as part of The Steve Jobs Show, Apple will introduce a brand-spanking new, 3G iPhone. It has some folks I know in the wireless world not really looking forward to the big surge of traffic such an 3G-capable iPhone will bring to their networks. Think of it as an iPhone-inspired stress test for their high-speed wireless networks.

In July 2008 June 2007, when Apple released the original iPhone, it ran on the 2G networks using a technology called EDGE. Despite the slower speeds, the data usage on AT&T’s mobile network ballooned. According to Chetan Sharma, our favorite mobile data guru, iPhone users used nearly five times the data used by average AT&T subscribers, and nearly twice as much as other smart phone owners. About 55 percent of the data was carried on Wi-Fi networks, while rest was on EDGE.

A recent study by M:Metrics shows that iPhone users are data junkies and do more stuff on their devices — surfing, social networking and even video — compared to other smart phones.

With the 3G iPhone, there is little desire to wait for a Wi-Fi connection and hitting the high-speed 3G connection directly for whatever you want to do. It has happened to me: Once I got EVDO, I stopped looking for a hot spot to connect my Lenovo X300, which has a built-in Verizon connection. Convenience took precedence over cost.

A flat-rate 3G data plan on iPhone would mean that the usage would start to shift from Wi-Fi to 3G. That would also boost the traffic, as lower prices could increase Apple’s current market share. At present it is estimated that Apple has sold just over 5.5 million iPhones, a number that could rise with carriers subsidizing the device to bring down the price to $200 from current $400-plus. And that could put the 3G networks under “stress.”

Most of the problem, if any, will crop up at the backhaul level. At present, the current 3G networks have a backhaul capacity of between 10-to-15 megabits per second, which is enough for the very short term, but it could become a big issue as more and more 3G iPhones and other new 3G phones go online. Bandwidth at the back end is going to start getting choked.

It’s already happening in Europe, where carriers are scrambling to add backhaul connections of either the microwave or the Ethernet kind to meet the growing bandwidth demand from 3G handsets. John Roese, CTO of Nortel, would describe it as the side effect of hyperconnectivity.

I asked folks from AT&T what they thought about the whole scenario. They didn’t seem to be worried, and pointed me to their plans to upgrade their networks and add capacity. (See Slide)

The company has recently updated its 3G networks speeds, just ahead of the release of the new iPhone. At the same time, it has partnered with Starbucks to offer Free Wi-Fi in the coffee chain’s stores. (It got Starbucks sued by T-Mobile USA.)

The reason I ended up writing this post is mostly because I have been seeing a whole slew of press releases around mobile video on iPhone. Mobile video playback wasn’t such a big issue on the closed 2G iPhone device, because it had slow connections that no one wanted to use to watch a limited number of YouTube video. This time around it’s different, and there is a huge interest in video on the iPhone.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Why Apple Needs Movie Rentals


ipodtouchtunes.pngThe Financial Times reports that Apple is close to announcing a deal with FOX that will allow the Cupertino, Calif.-based computer and consumer electronics giant to offer movies for “rent” via its iTunes store sometime in 2008. Other Hollywood studios are also said to be negotiating with Apple, the report says.

The rumor is being viewed by some as a way to revive the flagging Apple TV platform. The reality is that Apple needs to beef up its video offerings if it wants to continue the iPod cash machine humming. The best clue is the easy-to-rip-and-transfer-to-iPod capabilities that may be built into future FOX DVD offerings.

Apple will also for the first time extend its FairPlay digital rights management system beyond its own products. A digital file protected by FairPlay will be included in new Fox DVD releases, enabling film content to be transferred or “ripped” from the disc to a computer and video iPod.

A quick visit to the Apple’s iPod website shows that with the exception of low end iPod shuffle, every iPod is video capable. The big money makers for Apple are its new iPod Touch and iPhone devices. Shaw Wu of American Technology Research in a note to his clients estimated that iPod sales for the current quarter will be about 25 million.

“It’s looking like Apple’s most optimistic guidance in eight quarters is turning out to be conservative after all. Our recent checks with supply-chain sources lead us to believe Apple is positioned to deliver upside.” (via Bloomberg)

With 5 million iPhones expected to be sold, Apple at the end of fourth quarter 2007 will have between 5-and-10 million widescreen devices. This is a market that will be looking to fill their new acquisitions with content. Sure, there is a lot of video content for sale at the iTunes Store - television shows for example - but movies are in short supply. As Liz writes over on NewTeeVee

Compared to the six million songs it has in stock, iTunes has about 500 movies and 550 television shows. In October, Apple said it had sold over three billion songs, over two million movies, and 100 million TV shows.

Sure Disney and some other studios offer movies for download, but high prices have kept the buyers away. At $2.99 a pop, the rental business makes more sense. Say if you travel a lot, then filling your device with two or three movies you want to watch before leaving home is still cheaper than paying the airlines for a limited selection of movies, or watching the standard fare.

There is another reason why I don’t think this deal is about Apple TV and the living room - at least not yet. I have been buying TV shows - Numbers, CSI and Psych (before NBC pulled the plug) - and an occasional movie from Apple iTunes. While these were great to watch on my Macbook Pro’s 15.4 inch screen, the experience was mediocre at best when watching the shows my LCD TV via Apple TV. Unless Apple increases the quality drastically, many of the new HDTV owners will find the experience of watching videos on their big screens lagging.

For studios this is not a bad deal. As I have written in the past, DVD business is slumping, and these rentals can help compensate for the lost DVD revenues. More importantly, if someone likes a movie as a rental, they can buy the higher quality (or HD) versions of their DVDs.

Related Posts from NewTeeVee

Photo courtesy: Apple Inc.

Technology-News: GigaOm

(Apple) Stock Hacking & the power of DisInformaton

If you’re tired of the old cliché that information is power, here’s a new one: Disinformation is every bit as powerful.

That much we know from the mischievous email that was apparently sent out to Apple employees and that - naturally - quickly found its way into the tech-news cycle via the respected and highly trafficked tech site Engadget. The terse email said simply that the iPhone would be delayed to October from June and that the OS X Leopard operating software would not be released until January.

(Apple declined to offer any comment beyond reiterating that the email “wasn’t authentic” and that both the iPhone and Leopard are on track as previously announced.)

That was enough to cause Apple’s stock to tumble 5% from its morning high.

It took only seven minutes for Apple to fall to its intraday low of $103.42 from $108.83. Apple was trading below $105 for only two minutes, but in those two minutes more than 2.2 million shares were traded.

In the volatile 23 minutes of turmoil between the minute the disinformation hit the stock market at 8:55 PST and Apple’s announcement that the initial email “is fake and did not come from Apple,” nearly 15 million shares changed hands. That’s 60% of Apple’s normal volume in well under a half hour. That’s also an awful lot money lost for some investors - and gained for others - all of it because of a lie.

There are two things about this that are interesting: The practice itself, seeding the stock market with deceptive news that moves prices, is usually reserved for over-the-counter stocks, where a frantic post on a hyperactive message board can cause illiquid stocks to rise or fall five or 10 percent in less than a day.

But Apple, with an average trading volume of 25 million shares a day, is no penny stock. And yet, given all the hype that has surrounded the iPhone since January you’d have to think long and hard to come up with a piece of fake-news that would cause, in a matter of seconds, more investors (and Apple fanboys) to lose control of their anal sphincter muscles than this rumor did.**

The other notable twist is in how the fake news was spread. It seems someone figured out how to send an email to Apple employees around the world, putting the familiar “Bullet News” in the from line (for Apple’s sake, one hopes this is not as simple as sending an email to “everyone@apple.com”).

A week ago, I noted how backdated stock options, and look into who may have profited from shorting the stock ahead of the news.

And there is also already debate about how Engadget handled the news. Some say it just ran with what an Apple employee sent in; others say it could have benefited from double-checking with Apple. But let’s not forget that only 11 days ago, the New York Post, the country’s 13th oldest newspaper, ran the rapidly discredited news of a Microsoft-Yahoo merger. That fake news drove Yahoo’s stock up 19%, and most of those gains have since eroded away. The SEC has its work cut out for it.

But what really stands out for me in this bizarre but fascinating episode is that Apple investors were taken by a technological goof that could have happened a decade ago but that in 2007 is like being sold the Eiffel Tower. If the irrational hopes surrounding the iPhone had not gotten so overheated, this would never have happened.

Hat tip to Paul Kedroksy for coming up with the phrase, Stock Hackers

Technology-News: GigaOm

Will iPhone spark wireless wars?

Roy, a doorman for my apartment building, stopped me this morning to chit chat. Knowing my affection for all new mobile phones, I wasn’t surprised that he asked to play around with my Nokia N95. “Are you going to buy the iPhone?” he asked, seeking a second opinion since he has already made up his mind and is going to buy an iPhone.

Though he doesn’t have an iPod right now, he thinks an iPhone would give him two devices in one, despite the high price tag. He is seemingly undeterred by the questionable battery life. (One of the reasons why I have a more wait-and-see attitude towards this Apple device.) He isn’t the only one - as the interest in iPhone seems to be on an upswing.

Even if you disregard the rumors and fan sites - the population at large seems to have a considerable interest in the iPhone, indicated by the total search volume for keyword “iPhone.” According to Hitwise, a research group that tracks Internet traffic trends, iPhone related searches represent over 0.002% of total Internet searches per week for past three weeks, with iPhone release date and price being the specific information folks are looking for. (In comparison, MySpace was the #1 query and had 1.16% of the total search volume.) Just as an unscientific indicator the search volume is a good indicator of increasing commercial appeal of the device.

The big question, however, is how does iPhone impact the wireless market at large — and whether it will result in a market share shift, putting AT&T at an advantage.

AT&T is betting big on this device and is hoping to pull ahead of its rivals by riding the iPhone express. AT&T and Apple are going to be launching a big media blitz to promote the iPhone, and according to UBS Research, it will be a major reason why AT&T will be able to add approximately 2.8 million gross postpaid subscribers in the third and fourth quarters of 2007.

If Apple’s guidance of 10 million units in 18 months hits the target, UBS estimates that 2 million iPhones will be sold in the U.S. in the first six months of the launch. That works out to about 18% of AT&T’s post-paid additions and upgrades, UBS estimates. But these 2 million will have to come from somewhere - probably switchers from other wireless services.

At the end of Q1 2007, there were about 170 million postpaid wireless subscribers in the U.S., with Verizon the largest carrier (56 million) with AT&T at #2 with about 51 million, followed by Sprint (41 million) and T-Mobile bringing up the rear at 22 million. (These numbers don’t reflect wholesale and prepaid customers.)

So 2 million units don’t mean much in market share — a little 1.1% market share gain for AT&T in the first six months, but it is the residual impact that might cause the big upheaval in the wireless market.

There are some who believe that since iPhone isn’t going to get as much subsidy as other devices, AT&T can pass those subsidies to even further subsidize non-Apple phones, and making its service more attractive. That would be one way to capture the increased foot traffic to AT&T stores.

Will Verizon and Sprint take this lying down? Of course not, and will launch their own price subsidies, discount plans or whatever it takes to hang on to their subscribers. And whatever happens, consumers will come out ahead — nothing wrong with that. And even if Roy doesn’t end up buying the iPhone, he still might get a good deal somewhere else.

Photos by Niall Kennedy via Flickr.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Steve Jobs, saved by the rising stock

Thursday will mark a red-letter day for Apple: For the first time its stock will rise above $100 a share, a tenfold increase in a little more than three years. Think about that: If Google had risen that much since its IPO, it would be trading at $850.

Apple’s stock was trading at $102 in aftermarket trading Wednesday, a 7% surge above its formal closing price of $95.35. Unless something big happens overnight, Apple’s stock is likely to see a similar jump Thursday.

And why not? The company posted a net profit of 87 cents a share. That’s 85% above the 47 cents a share in the year-ago quarter and 36% above the consensus forecasts among analysts. This is a textbook case in a blowout earnings report and reason to wonder why analysts bother with Apple estimates.

Unfortunately, the success will also probably keep CEO Steve Jobs from facing deeper scrutiny for the company’s backdating scandal, an omission of clarity that could cause harm far beyond Cupertino.

The future looks just as bright. Sales for Mac products were up 36% year over year, substantially faster growth than in iPods and iTunes, which were up 25%. Apple is successfully broadening away from dependence on music products, a trend likely to strengthen later this quarter with the introduction of the iPhone.

The report caps a week that will probably be remembered as a milestone in the apotheosis of Steve Jobs. Looking past Apple’s earnings and its stock price, it’s getting harder and harder to pretend that Jobs didn’t violate securities law in the options-backdating scandal facing the company.

The SEC filed civil charges this week against Apple’s former CFO Fred Anderson, who has settled with regulators, and its former general counsel Nancy Heinen. Then Anderson, who might just as soon put the episode behind him, took the extraordinary step of issuing a public statement saying Jobs misled him on board decisions on options and that Jobs knew about the risk of a backdating charge.

Mark McQueen, CEO of Wellington Financial, a firm that manages $400 million, summed it up well on his blog

“When was the last time in recent memory that a corporate scandal led to very serious charges being brought against the CFO and General Counsel, but not against the CEO? … It’s curious that a former Apple CFO pointing fingers isn’t sufficient for the Securities Exchange Commission to proceed against Steve Jobs.”

Anderson’s version of events actually makes sense, given Jobs’ reputation as a control freak and his instrumental role in using options to lure in talent after he returned to Apple. But Jobs is unlikely to face any action from the SEC, even though Anderson’s statement is begging for a deeper probe.

Why? Ask any attorney who has left the SEC’s enforcement division in the past few years. They’ll tell you the department is well-intentioned and talented, but criminally understaffed and toothless. They took on Anderson and Heinen to set a high-profile example in the options scandal, which involves more than 100 companies.

But they didn’t take on Jobs. And the Justice Department, which may be looking into the Apple as well, is unlikely to either. He has become, more than any American businessman, an icon of success. It’s like throwing the golden goose under the train. There would be a massive revolt among Apple shareholders.

It was a similar case with Mark Hurd, who accomplished the near impossible by turning around H-P. When it became clear he was involved in the pretexting scandal, ethicists suggested he should step down. Shareholders said he shouldn’t, and they won.

I like Steve Jobs. As a consumer, I’m grateful for his achievements at both Pixar and Apple. But I’m troubled by the very real possibility he participated in options fraud and is being treated as above the law. Otherwise, regulators are sending a disturbing message to tech executives: As long as your stock is soaring higher, you can dabble in whatever scandals. If we ever get back in a bubble - when all stocks are surging, not just the deserving ones like Apple - that thinking will cause a lot of accounting messes.

An open, clean investigation would prevent this: If Jobs is innocent, the debate is over. If not, he makes amends while shareholder support will keep him as CEO. Either way, this image of Steve Jobs as above the law, a toxic one for the stock market, would go away.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Why Apple shifted coders to iPhone

Anyone looking for proof of the strategic importance of iPhone to Apple doesn’t have to look beyond Apple’s press release page — the company is delaying the next version of its Operating System, code-named Leopard, by four months, and instead shifting resources to iPhone, now slated for late June 2007 release.

The press release issued by Apple points to a weak link in Steve Jobs’ grand design for global digital domination: not enough minions.

However, iPhone contains the most sophisticated software ever shipped on a mobile device, and finishing it on time has not come without a price — we had to borrow some key software engineering and QA resources from our Mac OS X team, and as a result we will not be able to release Leopard at our Worldwide Developers Conference in early June as planned.

The future of Apple is devices. Non-computing consumer electronic type devices are much less powerful than traditional computers, and need programmers who are thrifty in their code and skillful enough to squeeze the very last pico-hertz of performance out of lower-power embedded processors.

It is even more important in the mobile phone world, where poorly written code could simply negate the best efforts of hardware engineers. Apple doesn’t want to do that — it has a beautiful device, with an elegant user interface. However, lethargic applications and poor battery life could destroy user experience and chill the demand for even the hottest phone on the market. Apple historically has been home to coders who squeezed every drop out of those low-powered Motorola chips.

Typically, OS upgrades have provided a financial boost to the company’s profit margins, but this shuffle indicated that Apple is glad to forego those profits and instead opt for its next big cash cow - iPhone.

Now we can smirk, and point to the fact, Apple did drop Computer from its name after all.

PS: This delay should stop those Vista-delay jokes, because those who live in glass houses don’t throw stones.

Photo by Niall Kennedy via Flickr.

Technology-News: GigaOm