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The relative success and cult-like popularity of Asus’ Eee cloud computer has helped raise the level of interest in what’s being called a new class of computers. Some call the new machines ultra-mobile PCs (UMPCs), others have labeled them Netbooks, and many are safely referring to them as handhelds. It’s hardly a surprise that the PC powerhouses — Intel, Microsoft, Hewlett Packard, Dell and dozens of others — have gone running after this opportunity.

After using one of the so-called Netbooks, it has become obvious that they really need to go back to the drawing board and rethink how people are going to use these devices if they want to participate in the next big shift of computing.

So far, all they have done is cram traditional notebooks into smaller, maybe-lighter-to-carry bodies. They’re neither good for computing nor for communication. To me, the dozens of models being touted seem like a genetic experiment gone wrong, a fact that was brought home when I tested one of the most talked-about devices: Hewlett Packard’s HP 2133 miniNote.

The miniNote is being introduced into the educational market and will cost between $499 and $1,199, depending on the configuration. It looked like a promising device and I was quite eager to try it out. However, my excitement didn’t last very long. In fact, barely three hours after trying out the device, I decided to pack it in. Why? Not because it was underpowered, or the keyboard was too cramped, or the screen made you squint.

On the contrary, the Via C7-M processor makes the machine capable of easily handling all sorts of tasks and the keyboard was actually quite nice and sturdy to use, though it’s not advisable to use it for typing out long documents. The keyboard reminded me of the Powerbook 12, which had one of the best keyboards on a laptop. (For a more in-depth review and discussion of features, I recommend jkOnTheRun.)

So if those aren’t the issues, then what’s the problem? Many, if you ask me. It is a little too heavy — 2.7 lbs — for an ultraportable, especially if you factor in the fat extended battery you need to run this thing. It runs Windows XP and no surprise, takes too long to boot up. (There is a Linux version, but I didn’t try that.)

More importantly, in less than an hour it was generating more heat than my first Macbook Pro, aka the oven. It is not as if I had dozens of apps open. All I was using was a simple Internet Explorer. (I have not installed Firefox yet.) Maybe it’s a problem with the pre-production demo unit, but if it’s not, then the issue of heat is a dealbreaker for me, and it should be for other people as well. Any highly mobile device whose primary function is to surf the web should not become a kitchen appliance within an hour. It would be virtually impossible to use it on one’s lap.

So after playing around with the miniNote this weekend, I came up with a checklist of features that should be a must in a machine that has to qualify as a cloud computer (or whatever you want to call it.)

1. Instant On
2. Doesn’t generate too much heat.
3. Minimum 5 years hours of battery life.
4. Must feature at least four communications options: WiFi, Ethernet, Bluetooth & Wireless Wide Area Network connection to, say, an EVDO or HSPA Network.
5. Less than three pounds (batteries included).
6. Screen size of 3.5-8 inches (wide-screen proportioned)
7. The primary function of the computer should be cloud-based activities that can include everything from listening to live music, reading blogs and watching videos. Writing research reports or cranking out spreadsheets isn’t the primary purpose of these machines.
8. It should cost no more than $300. This isn’t a computer; it’s a communications device. It should really be an on-the-go device. It is a device for the moments when your cellphone isn’t enough, and laptop is too much. An iPhone should qualify.
9. Its innards, ports should be geared for Internet-based activities — from making calls on Skype to consuming RSS feeds — though it should be able to handle external peripherals.
10. In the future it should move away from the keyboard and have a touchscreen interface that allows one to sift through large amounts of data (or web pages) quickly, as cramped keyboards and touchpads can be hard to use.

What do you guys think? If you have your own checklist of features or thoughts about this evolving market, I would love to hear from you.

Meanwhile, please check out these related posts from our archives.

• Can ultraportables grow ultra fast?
• Nvidia joins the ultramobile computing party
• The unintended consequences of OLPC
• Will Eee PCs upend the portable pricing market?
• Is Linux the OS of Ubiquitous Computing?

If this story interests you then you should definitely check out our upcoming conference, Structure 08.

I’ve spent a considerable amount of my personal and professional time mocking conspiracy theorists, but it is true that as we open our homes and our wallets to electronic devices, we are also opening up our lives to surveillance. So if you plan on doing something risky, read the list below. Then then check out your ISP’s terms of service, wrap your phone in tinfoil, and call a cab (leave your wallet at home).

1. Mall Watchers: Like mall walkers, mall watchers aren’t so much evil as they are annoying. A firm called Path Intelligence isn’t tracking YOU, it’s tracking your particular cell phone — everything else is anonymous. Except for the country you live in. Because such data is helpful to mall owners and marketers who want to see where that cell phone travels inside their buildings. And we love to help them out, right?
2. Web Stalkers: Already vilified in England and under investigation in Canada, these programs track your web surfing habits (again, not you, just anonymous data) and sell ads based on that data. And now the evils of deep-packet inspection have landed stateside, with Charter offering tracking to subscribers as an “enhanced service.”
3. Location-Based Services/Advertising: Ever issued the little white lie to your boss or significant other, like saying you’re home sick when you’re waiting in line for tickets to the latest “Indiana Jones” flick? Thanks to the combination of location-based services delivered via cell phone and social networks, you may find yourself caught or at least having to prepare a bit before you tell your tale.
4. Automotive black boxes: These services, which began with On-Star, are now so advanced they can track whether or not you (or someone with your ID chip) are driving the car. The boxes are not only outfitted with GPS chips that can be used to track where you are if the car gets in an accident, but contain hardware to disable a car in case of a theft. The boxes are tied to police systems, which means it’s easy enough for governments to track the car at any time. I wonder how long route data is stored.
5. Digital IDs: And for those of you who walk to work, don’t own a cell phone and refuse broadband service, there’s still your driver’s license or work-issued identity card, which can contain a chip that holds the key to your identity and can broadcast your data to anyone with the equipment to read it.

The awkwardly named Long-Term Evolution (LTE) technology is pulling ahead in the race for the 4G wireless networks. If carrier plans are any indication, Ultra Mobile Broadband, the upgrade technology for CDMA networks, is quickly becoming a non-factor. Even WiMAX, which was at one point seen as offering significant cost and time advantages, has started to lose out to LTE.

Since so many industry insiders have started talking about the inevitability of LTE over everything else, I have started to keep tabs on different carriers and their 4G plans. Here are some notables that have made their LTE plans public.

• Vodafone, the largest global carrier, has been an early champion of LTE.
• AT&T plans to roll out its 4G network sometime in 2012 utilizing their recently acquired 700 MHz spectrum.
• Verizon Wireless has plans to roll out its 700 MHz-based network in 2010.
• Japanese carrier KDDI, which has been using CDMA technologies for a while now, is said to be favoring LTE over UMB.

This is not a complete list so much as a directional indicator. (If you have any carriers you want to see on this list, please send me an email.) China and India, the big gorillas on Planet Mobile, have yet to decide their 3G/4G destiny and so remain an X-factor. (More on India down below.)

As more carriers opt for LTE, the equipment makers can start planning for scale and thus bring down the cap-ex costs for these carriers. Lower pricing can have a domino effect, so we could see smaller carriers start to opt for LTE as well. Companies on the equipment side are already making LTE plans.

At the CTIA show in Las Vegas, which wrapped up last week, there were a couple of significant announcements:

• Chinese equipment maker Huawei Technologies said it will have its 700 MHz products ready for launch in the first quarter of 2009, around the time the carriers can start claiming the wireless spectrum they bought. These offerings include UMTS, CDMA and LTE devices.
• Ericsson, which is now a dominant wireless infrastructure equipment provider, announced its 700 MHz plans with its new M700 mobile platform, an LTE-capable platform with peak data rates of up to 100Mbps in the downlink and up to 50Mbps in the uplink.

Again, this is not a complete list. (If you want us to include you in future 700 MHz/LTE posts, please drop us a link or short informational blurb via our contact form.)

Our favorite wireless data analyst, Chetan Sharma, did the rounds at CTIA and his conclusion about LTE concurred with our reporting. “Without a doubt the operator community is rallying behind LTE, and there might be an opportunity to finally converge to a single standard,” he says.

Sharma points out that single standards, while nice and dandy, will soon become a thing of the past thanks to “advances in silicon” that now make it possible “to integrate multiple radios” on single chip. Of course, the potential of software-defined radios are finally beginning to be realized as well; Huawei, for example, will be using SDRs in its 700 MHz gear.

So what about WiMAX? Well in the U.S., things aren’t looking so good. Sprint’s Xohm Network has hit some snags and Clearwire is riding rough seas. A rescue in the form of a new, megabillion-dollar funding for a new WiMAX operator might emerge, but we’ll have to wait and see.

As Sharma notes, “WiMAX has forced acceleration of the LTE standardization process but is starting to lose its time (and cost) advantage.” From what I have been able to learn, WiMAX is the technology of choice in the emerging telecom economies. In India for instance, Tata and Reliance, two giant telecom operators, are spending a ton of cash on WiMAX, as is the incumbent Indian incumbent, BSNL.

Charlie Martin, CTO of wireless for Huawei, in an interview with Fierce Broadband Wireless, said, “We view WiMAX as different from CDMA and LTE in terms of the fact that WiMAX is a good alternative for emerging markets and alternative operators.” If there is one company that knows emerging markets, it is Huawei, so I give Martin’s comments a lot of credence.

Note: I am starting to keep close tabs on all mobile web/wireless broadband developments and will be keeping you posted in coming weeks and months. I am looking to come up with a matrix of winners and losers - from chipmakers to device makers to carriers — from all these new wireless evolutions. If you want to help me with that, drop me a note with your thoughts and suggestions. Or send me your email address so I can add you to an ever-changing collaboration using Google Docs.

Interested in web infrastructure? Want to learn more about Green Data Centers? Check out our upcoming conference, Structure 08.

Qualcomm’s Dr. Sanjay Jha , COO and president of its CDMA technologies division, is betting on mobile devices that are going to fill the gap between laptops and smart phones. Some call them cloud clients, some call them handhelds, while for others they’re ultra-portables.

Whatever the name, they are part of a new class of devices that represents technology’s next pot of gold. Intel is hoping to move into the ultra-mobile PC market with its Atom processor. Qualcomm isn’t going to make it easy for Intel, or so I gathered from a conversation with Dr. Jha at the CTIA show in Las Vegas. Here are the excerpts:

Me: What is the state of the 3G handset business? What are some of the trends you see right now?

Jha: This [3G] is a fairly robust business for us. Last year we shipped 176 million-odd handsets and devices and this year we’re projecting north of 270 million devices. So that’s very healthy growth in 3G for us. We see the growth in smart phones and we’re seeing a growth in services — messaging services — that the handset is not just about voice anymore, but also about email. That email is not just an enterprise play anymore; we’re seeing a lot of consumers who feel they need to be in email contact. We are in a space where computing and wireless mobility are converging.

Me: Beyond handsets, it seems Qualcomm is pretty high on Snapdragon. Can you tell us where you stand with Snapdragon?

Jha: We have a 1 GHz processor that runs at 500 mW. It is designed into 15 devices. Those devices are pocket-sized portable computers with 4-inch to 5-inch screens that will have a long battery life, broadband access and a fast processor that can surf the web and download attachments.

Me: When will these devices come out, and how does this compete with Intel’s Atom processors for ultra-mobile PCs?

Jha: Devices using Snapdragon will come out in the second half of this year, before or after Christmas. And I wouldn’t say we’re competing with Intel because we want to focus on a pocket-sized device that you can carry with you. Intel’s specifications for Atom are focused on a device with a 7-inch to 9-inch display.

Me: Isn’t this area similar to the Foleo product launched by Palm? Is the market ready for these devices?

Jha: I loved the Foleo. It had great software and was always connected, but it had a full keyboard. Our vision is similar, but our device is smaller. We think it still needs to be carried in your pocket. I think that device was closer to something like the Mac Air.

Me: What kind of software would run on the Snapdragon devices? BREW?

Jha: BREW is really for handsets. We see Windows Mobile or Linux as the software for this type of device. There are already so many types of programs already available on those platforms built for this category of products.

Me: Does this increased focus on the consumer and computing markets mean that Qualcomm could get back into being a device maker?

Jha: Well, never is strong word, but I don’t think we’d go down that path again.

Me: How do you know that Qualcomm is heading down the right path with regard to these ultra-mobile devices? What will be the signposts of success or failure that you will be looking for?

Jha: It’s easier to see when you’re successful, and I guess the trick is knowing when things aren’t going well. It may be easy to see after five years of things not going well, but I guess I will realize we’re not doing well if I’m doing the same thing I am doing now in five years.

Me: You’ve also mentioned the growth in wireless revenue coming from services. What role will Qualcomm play in the services side of the business?

Jha: We see mCommerce, where you can pay for things using your mobile phone; location-based services; and downloading content as being up-and-coming services. In the developed world, mCommerce may not be as big, but in the developing world, where everyone has a handset (and few credit cards), mCommerce is huge.

We will partner with providers, but want to provide an integrated platform on which to deliver those services. For example, with sending money over a mobile phone, security is huge. We want to make it possible to do that across carriers and across banks.

After writing up a storm about the next-generation cellular Long-Term Evolution standard a few weeks ago, I noticed that several commenters were confused, critical or just plain wrong about LTE and WiMax, the other 4G network. So I called a few people and tried to figure out the salient differences between the two. First, both are 4G technologies designed to move data rather than voice. Both are IP networks based on OFDM technology — so rather than rivals such as GSM and CDMA, they’re more like siblings. But sibling rivalry does exist, so there’s still plenty of differences to hash out.

Let’s start with the genesis of the two technologies.WiMax is based on a IEEE standard (802.16), and like that other popular IEEE effort, Wi-Fi, it’s an open standard that was debated by a large community of engineers before getting ratified. In fact, we’re still waiting on the 802.16m standard for faster mobile WiMax to be ratified. The level of openness means WiMax equipment is standard and therefore cheaper to buy — sometimes half the cost and sometimes even less. Depending on the spectrum alloted for WiMax deployments and how the network is configured, this can mean a WiMax network is cheaper to build.

If WiMax is the hippie, grass-roots parents on “Family Ties,” LTE is closer to Alex P. Keaton. The players determining the LTE standard through the 3GPP are comprised of carriers and equipment vendors who have been buying and selling the same proprietary boxes for years. The open, standards-based way of doing business isn’t exactly their modus operandi.

Fred Wright, an SVP that handles 4G networks for Motorola, believes LTE will be the standard chosen by 80 percent of the carriers in the world — good news for vendors such as such as Alcatel-Lucent and Ericsson, who have opted to stick with LTE. Of course, as GSM is the dominant mobile standard today, such a prediction isn’t all that surprising.

However, LTE will take time to roll out, with deployments reaching mass adoption by 2012 . WiMax is out now, and more networks should be available later this year. As for speeds, LTE will be faster than the current generation of WiMax, but 802.16m that should be ratified in 2009 is fairly similar in speeds.

So despite their differences in origin and current availability, the two siblings may grow closer with time, especially as newer iterations on the standard emerge. Wright said 85 percent of the work and technology for WiMax equipment will be reused in Motorola’s LTE equipment designs. The true battle isn’t between the competing 4G networks, but between wireless and wired broadband.

“The performance and capabilities of WiMax and LTE will only get better over time, and will represent a direct competitive threat to the existing broadband services,” Wright says. “People will make a choice, just like today when people are disconnecting their wired lines for voice.”

It’s an ambitious goal, and aside from the networking technology, things such as backhaul capacity, and availability of network devices will determine how wireless our world will become.

Qualcomm’s Gobi wireless platform, which is comprised of firmware and chips, aims to make it easy for manufacturers to put a 3G network card inside a laptop without going through multiple carrier certification programs. If widely adopted, it would give Qualcomm a foothold inside the fast-growing laptop market, and a way to move beyond its intellectual property monopoly on the aging CDMA standard.

Mike Concannon, vice president of strategic products for Qualcomm’s CDMA technologies division, said the firm will license the Gobi platform to card makers, and won’t be getting back into manufacturing. Already H-P has said it will use Gobi cards in its 2008 line of laptops. The Gobi platform will be available in March and end users could see it by June.

The Gobi modules consists of firmware, a GPS chip and a software-defined radio that is both CDMA and HSPA compliant. It can be configured to run on any compliant network with a 5-second software update, or (depending on the business arrangement struck between laptop OEMs and carriers) could be limited to certain carrier networks. One way or another, laptop makers would love to have a single, multicarrier network card from which to choose.

Built-in wireless broadband would be sweet for those of us who hate inserting and keeping track of external network cards. If laptop makers give 3G valuable space inside the laptop, it would prove that 3G as a source of wireless broadband has arrived — especially if the carriers can offer competitive data plans.

But Qualcomm’s ambitions don’t stop at 3G. “We see Gobi embedded in laptops as kind of a landing point,” says Concannon. “If Gobi is the first step in overlapping or uniting networks just as we’ve united a CDMA and HSPA network, and as we talk about HSPA Plus and LTE, then this idea of having a multifunction radio that allows the device to receive the least common denominator is kind of an important concept.”

And because wireless technology is kind of pain to embed on a laptop thanks to all the noise generated by the PC motherboard, owning the pre-optimized wireless real estate inside the laptop is an enviable position to be in. Concannon doesn’t see Qualcomm stopping with carrier technology, and mentioned digital television transmission and ultra-mobile broadband as future networking technologies that might find a home on Gobi. Perhaps WiMax too?

Of course, other players could come along with their own firmware and go through the pre-certification process with all of the major carriers, but Qualcomm has a pretty tight relationship with many of the carriers, making such an endeavor a hard slog. It also controls the CDMA intellectual property, meaning any efforts to compete would still enrich Qualcomm on some level.

But given the rancor Qualcomm has stirred in the mobile chipset and handset community, laptop OEMs might want to take a long hard look at what Gobi could mean for them down the road. Qualcomm royalties aren’t cheap.

Nokia’s E series and N Series phones are attractive options for mobile phone consumers. Nokia openly goes after other handset makers and telcos for crippling features and stripping out functionality such as fully enabled Bluetooth, Wi-Fi access and so on. Nokia and their use of the Symbian operating system create a fertile ground for mobile application developers.

We, the users, benefit by getting highly functional and useful applications that enhance our mobile phone experience. Below are some of the best applications for taking advantage of all your Nokia phone has to offer.

1) Gmail — Gmail for Mobile is a fantastic Java-based application for accessing your Google Mail account on your mobile phone. They’ve made a great effort to use numeric keypad shortcuts to easily manage your mail. Though it’s a little buggy, overall it’s a great Gmail extension for your mobile phone.

2) GooSync – Your Symbian S60 phone has a calendar application, but what if you use Google Calendar as your main calendar? There are a few open source options for syncing the two, but when it comes to easily doing two-way sync, GooSync is the way to go. GooSync gives users two options: a free account and a pay account, with the main differences being that the pay account allows you to sync up to 365 days in advance and syncs your Gmail contacts as well.

3) Qik — If you’re familiar with Justin.tv, you’ve seen life-casting. Now you can conduct live Net broadcasts directly from your Symbian phone using Qik, a tool that utilizes the Nokia handset’s camera and either the cellular data connection or a Wi-Fi data connection. Using it over an EDGE data connection will cause video lag, but Qik streaming over Wi-Fi is very cool. If I’m filming something on my Nokia phone on Qik, I can see comments that viewers leave on the Qik web site as they’re entered.

4) Jaiku — A presence application similar to Twitter, Jaiku differs with features that include threaded conversations and topic-based channels. Jaiku has embraced the Nokia S60 operating system and has launched a native application to enable you to view friend’s Jaikus and post your own. Also if a Jaiku friend has the S60 client installed, you can see when they were last on their phone and where in the world they’re currently located. It’s also possible to see other Jaiku contacts that are in close proximity to you on the Symbian Jaiku client.

5) Fring — A multi-protocol IM client that currently supports AIM, Skype, Yahoo, MSN, Google Talk and Twitter, and features a SIP client. Fring seamlessly uses your data connection to allow you to IM or call contacts if they are on Google Talk or Skype. Fring also recently launched a feature that allows you to send files over Wi-Fi and 3G connection to your contacts. Very cool.

6) Nokia Sports Tracker — Using the N95’s built-in GPS module, Nokia Sports Tracker is a beta application that allows runners, walkers and cyclists to track and keep statistics of their workouts. Users can see stats such as average speed, total distance, altitude, and so on. Also, you can export your workouts into a KML file and map your workout routes in Google Earth. In addition, Nokia created a Facebook application that allows you to compare your workout details with your social circle.

7) Handy TaskMan — Sometimes you want to peek under the hood of your Symbian phone. Perhaps you want to see how memory much is left, or you’d like to see detailed information on all the running applications. Handy Taskman is the utility that gives you all this information and more. Additionally, if you have an application or task that is you want to easily terminate, Handy Taskman will allow you to exit the application with the click of a button.

8) ShoZu — The Nokia NSeries phones are made to create digital content, including great-looking videos and photos. But how to easily get all these media items onto your favorite media-sharing web service? Whether you want to upload video to YouTube/Blip.tv or put photos up on Flickr/SmugMug, ShoZu is the application for you. ShoZu lets you tag, categorize, and upload your media to these popular service providers in the background, and allows you to send a text message or surf the web in the process.

9) Nokia Podcasting — How do you manage your podcast library? Most people use iTunes or a Juice receiver. But wouldn’t it be great to manage your podcasts directly on the device you’re using to listen to them? With the Nokia podcasting application you can add, delete and manage your podcast subscriptions. In fact, you can download directly to the Nokia Symbian mobile phone over either Wi-Fi or your phone’s data connection. The functionality is very convenient, especially if you like being able to manage your podcast subscriptions without having to interface with your computer.

10) Google Maps — As a mobile warrior, I’m constantly finding myself in need of a map. Google Maps is by far the best mapping application. And it recently released a native Symbian application, allowing it to not only mesh well with the Symbian look and feel but creating a fast, seamless mobile map experience. Google Maps also features My Location, which is a poor man’s GPS, using cell phone triangulation to show your approximate location on a map. This is exceptionally handy if you’re trying to draw easy directions on the go or find a pizza place within a few miles of your current location.

Written by Martin Geddes, chief analyst at STL Partners, which is responsible for the Telco 2.0 Initiative. More about this research project and the results can be found here.

“[O]ur business is about scope and scale and having superior incremental margins. If you are looking to tax content and bundle device, application and network, it isn’t going to work. You had better be good at moving information if you want to be a network service provider.” – Jim Crowe, CEO of Level 3 Communications, at Citigroup 2008 Global Entertainment, Media and Telecommunications Conference.

We’ve just completed a major 6-month study into the future of broadband, including an online survey responded to by over 800 industry insiders, interviews with leading figures and actors in the industry, and desk research into comparable networked industries like container shipping and power distribution. Below are some of the key findings, which very much echo Jim Crowe’s comments above.

1. Telecom is a logistics business for valuable data. It’s about providing personalized delivery of that data, and removing the “customs barriers” (such as network provisioning, authentication) to that delivery. This is much more complex (and profitable) than being a “dumb pipe,” but doesn’t mean being an applications or media business (something telcos are notoriously bad at doing).

2. Broadband is just one of many distribution systems for data. Others include broadcast, physical media, circuit voice, SMS, content delivery networks, and edge caches (which capture and retransmit broadcast content, e.g. networked DVRs). The successful broadband services provider of the future will be able to mix and match multiple delivery systems, just as logistics companies blend road, sea, rail and air.

3. A key enabler for this will be home hubs, media servers and set-top boxes — whoever gets to deploy and manage these boxes will emerge as the winner in the space. As these boxes are the “ports” at which all the different delivery systems must dock, they will be critical to being a “logistics solutions” provider. The best examples today come from Iliad and Sky in Europe, which have the best blend of multiple-delivery systems, features and content. Mobile devices and networks will also need to evolve new provisioning, authentication, policy and retail models.

4. Telcos will make increasing amounts of money from wholesale, not retail. Media companies, employers, merchants and government will pay BSPs to deliver content and applications on their behalf. So you’ll watch YouTube without worrying about fair use limits (on “unlimited” ISP plans), or going over your usage cap. Google wants you to watch and watch without having to worry if there’s a meter running. Wholesale markets tend to be concentrated, since the whole point is that buyers (like Google) don’t want to have to personally interact with dozens of sellers (like telcos). That means only a few large telcos or aggregators will prosper.

5. The ISP product suffers from severe economic problems. A few users are diverging in their usage from the rest, driving capital and operational cost. These users are different from day to day, so you can’t shed them. Attempts at traffic shaping to manage cost only work with a policy of “radical honesty,” such as that from PlusNet in the UK. Retail prices are falling to the point where additional usage is being priced below the cost of transit for that traffic.

6. Nonetheless, the ISP product will continue to grow, but the emphasis will move elsewhere. Users will increasingly buy (or use ad-funded versions of) applications with all “postage and packing” charges included, for all the networks and places they wish to use that application or content. Amazon’s Kindle is just the start of a major shift in how we retail broadband services.

7. Voice will be the catalyst. There will be a rapid rise of non-traditional voice services as voice is embedded into the general online experience. You’ll be able to call your date from your mobile dating application, without knowing your date’s mobile number, and the whole cost of the call will be borne through your dating application subscription.

8. Telcos will move towards “two-sided” business models, which involve not just wholesaling bulk capacity, but increased personalization of delivery to their own retail ISP end users on behalf of their “upstream” partners. This will include using location and presence to enable everyday business processes (e.g. parcel delivery, health-care services), ad insertion, or ecommerce services like credit checks.

9. This is part of a larger “platform” business model that involves opening up the telco to exploit underused assets. This is a much bigger activity than just enabling a few APIs, and requires considerable restructuring to achieve. For example, you need a sales force to find these new wholesale customers!

10. Network neutrality is a completely mis-framed debate. It assumes that the user has access to a single telco product: pre-paid (by the user) ISP access. The real market will be vastly more complex, with users having access to many “virtual” networks — some overlaid on the Internet, some private. All the bogeymen making noise about blocking and throttling are just the shadows of welcome improvements in the wholesale markets. This exactly mirrors what has happened in the financial markets over the last 20 years, where vertical integration ended and lots of wholesale markets grew up to repackage and resell debt and other financial instruments.