I received some incredible news last night from two portfolio company CEOs updating me on our Q3 numbers.  They not only hit their respective forecasts set early in the year, but they beat them.  Normally I expect our portfolio companies to hit their numbers, but I am ecstatic because we delivered in the midst of the largest financial crisis we have ever seen.  While much news on the technology world is of doom and gloom, and while I too have been advising portfolio companies to conserve cash, it is nice to see that companies are still willing to spend if you deliver a strong value proposition.  More importantly these numbers speak to the commitment of the respective teams to do anything possible to deliver on the Q3 forecasts.  In each company, sales reps and executives flew out to key prospects and knocked off obstacle upon obstacle until they walked away with an order.  Ok, it is not as dramatic as it sounds as there were numerous meetings and technology proof of concepts before getting a sale, but the point remains that the companies that delivered did not wait for the orders but went out and got them.  There were a number of stories of sacrifices that were made including one sales rep who was expecting his third child yesterday but was at a prospect getting the contract inked and another one of a sales rep and sales engineer who camped out at a client's office all day and wouldn't leave until they had a signed contract.  Extraordinary times require extraordinary measures, and I hope that stories like these inspire you to keep fighting the good fight and to go out and make things happen.  Startups need to be scrappy and tough to survive!

The economy is clearly slowing down and the IPO market is nonexistent.  As I have always said, this is the time to hunker down and tweak your business to get your model right.  If you are interested in exiting today, M&A continues to be the only viable path along that front.  Having been through a number of acquisitions and potential acquisitions through the years, one point I must remind you of is that any deal isn't over until its over.  On the surface, this seems so obvious.  And yes, once a term sheet is signed and a price and general terms are agreed to, you are in great shape.  But recently, through discussions with other VCs and entrepreneurs, I am hearing about more situations where strategic buyers may significantly change the deal terms after more serious due diligence or even potentially walk away from a deal.  This can be especially painful if you have spent a number of months meeting with the strategic and going through due diligence in lieu of running your business. Trust me, this happened to one of my portfolio companies last year and reasons cited can include we had a change of strategic priorities and or look at the economy, there is no way we can value you like we did when we started the deal.

The Jordan Edmiston Group recently asked me and a few other VCs a few pointed questions about the future for circulation in their July Client Briefing.  As an aside, I worked with JEGI two years ago and they did a fantastic job helping us sell Moreover Technologies to Verisign.  They understand the media and online world, are well connected, and work diligently to get the job done.  Anyway, here are the questions and my response:

Even though there is uncertainty in the credit markets, a stalled IPO market, and few billion-dollar plus M&A transactions, the investment activity level and appetite for quality businesses in the middle-market continues to be vibrant. Venture Capital firms continue to invest in companies that are providing answers to key disruptive market forces and are exiting those investments via M&A. The Jordan, Edmiston Group, Inc. (JEGI) solicited a handful of key VC executives for their responses to the following questions:

The world that we live in trades on reputation.  What that means is that eventually whether you are raising capital or landing new customers, your references will matter.  If you are an entrepreneur, a VC will want to do some deep reference checks on you and also on any major customers or partners.  If you are trying to land that big customer, naturally the sales propsect will ask to speak with other customers to get a better understanding of the technology and your service.  How you handle and manage these reference calls is crucial to moving to the next step in a funding round or to closing a sale.  I have seen some entrepreneurs take the nonchalant approach, feeling quite secure in their relationships, and freely passing on contact information for their personal references and partners/customers.  Many times these calls will turn out just fine but there is still a big chance that they might not turn out as planned.

In my opinion, the best way to deal with reference calls is to carefully manage the process.  First, I would identify the 4 or 5 best references (customers/partners/personal) and have a call with them to make sure they are willing and have the right attitude and to pre-screen them with questions to make sure they convey the right information to the interested party.  Secondly, I would make sure that you don't inundate your references with too many calls as they may tire of helping you after awhile.  Finally, I would also set expectations and be quite clear with the VC or potential customer about what to expect from the call.  For example, I was talking to a CEO yesterday, and he mentioned that our strategic partner would take a call from a VC but that the partner was not the most effusive individual and would clearly state the facts but nothing more.  Well, if that is your only reference for that partner, make sure you convey this to the interested party to set expectations (see my earlier post about that). 

I had some interesting meetings yesterday and as I reflected on them this morning, one common theme emerged which is that the next generation of the web will be built on data mining and extracting intelligence from the reams of data web services collect on a daily basis.  This reminds me of a post I made in March of 2006 titled "The Next Generation Web - scaling and data mining will matter" where I mention:

I truly believe the next battleground will be based on scaling the back end and more importantly mining all of that clickstream data to offer a better service to users.  Those that can do it cheaply and effectively will win.  The tools are getting more sophisticated, the data sizes are growing exponentially, and companies don't want to break the bank nor wait for Godot to deliver results.

My first meeting was with a well known research analyst covering Internet stocks.  While we discussed the usual topics such as how the Internet was taking share from traditional advertising budgets and how the top brand advertisers have not really embraced the web yet, our most lively discussion centered around next generation advertising technology which all centered around increasingly complex forms of data analysis.  To that end, I mentioned one of the fund's portfolio companies, Peer39, which is using natural language processing and machine learning to create highly precise matching of commercial offers and user generated content.  As you might guess, the secret sauce is the algorithms that the company has created.

As you know, I have always been a believer in open standards (see my post from January 2006).  Being a market leader, it is quite easy for Facebook to create their own standard similar to how every other instant messaging network was started.  And to that end, Facebook started down that path.  But just today, it announced that it was extending its chat and opening up its service by offering XMPP/Jabber support.  Assuming there are no restrictions, this is a huge win for openness.  Maybe one day Skype and MySpace and others will adopt the same strategy and move us to a world where we can IM anyone from any network and have one IM identity rather be forced to live in a world that was similar to the dark ages of email where Prodigy, Compuserve, and AOL users could only communicate with users on the same network.  Once Facebook starts with chat, maybe when and if it ever offers VOIP, it would leverage the open SIP standard as well. Rest assured that the development team at portfolio company Gizmo5 is digging into the details of the Facebook annoucement and in short order can offer seamless connectivity to Facebook chat from your mobile phone.  From the day Gizmo5 was started, it was built to live in a world of open standards leveraging the SIP protocol for VOIP and Jabber/XMPP for IM and Presence.  As you might imagine, the smaller networks who needed users were the ones to adopt open standards first.  Slowly but surely, larger and larger networks have adopted these standard starting with Google Chat in 2006 and now Facebook with its dominant market share in social networking.  It seems as if the floodgates are opening and this is quite exciting.  As I mentioned in my post from 2006:

Whatever happens it will be interesting to see if true open standards will triumph over closed and proprietary and how long that will take. At the end of the day consumers don't care about protocols, they just want it all to work seamlessly and easily, and they do not want to be on their own island for communications.  What I want is one identity or phone number that works on any IM network, VOIP network, or even integrates with my PSTN and cell phone identity?

During the last month, I have been in board meetings and thinking to myself about what was going well and what wasn't.  And when the discussion came to revenue, one common theme that always seemed to surface was a focus on the next product.  What I mean is that when discussing why our current product wasn't selling as well as it should have or getting as many users as projected, the answer was always focused on the next product or feature.  Granted, I have always believed that one needs an insanely great product or service to generate sustainable revenue and that constant iteration is key to success.  However, it is also important to understand why a current product or service is or isn't doing as well as you thought.  In addition, entrepreneurs must also think about how they are going to get the product to the market and come up with the right messaging.  I have seen a number of situations where entrepreneurs can get too focused about developing and releasing the next product or feature without spending as much or even more time and resources in getting it out to the market.  Then when management and the board sit down to evaluate what went wrong, the answer seems to be that people clearly didn't care.  That can be a huge failing because the product or service may actually be phenomenal but just may have had no marketing or support in reaching potential customers.

I was waiting for this day to happen.  Each day I go online and also glance at the newspaper, and there is nothing but bad news.  And yes, it is true that some of the best technology companies were built when the economy was at its worst.  And I always like to think that it takes a little longer for some of these negative effects to trickle down to smaller companies and startups.  Just the other day, I got the call from one of my portfolio companies which had won a huge deal last month.  We were waiting for the purchase order and the dreaded call came: "You still have the deal but our CFO needs us to cost justify every dollar we spend on IT - the deal will have to wait until next quarter."  That definitely put a kink in our plans and also caused us to adjust our Q1 forecast.  Fortunately, many of us had been through this before and management had prepared alternative plans based on various growth rates at our last board meeting.  We had a base case model which we were running our expenses on, an upside model which we had hoped we would achieve, and a lower growth scenario which we would have to implement if bookings did not materialize.  I know that this is one data point but all I can say is that if you have not done so already, prepare a few different models to make sure you can make appropriate changes to your business to conserve cash.  I won't say that we are in a recession but if we get more data points on spending freezes, layoffs, and the like, it is only prudent to be prepared.  And yes, as I stated above, while some of the best technology companies were built when the economy was at its worst, they would not be here today if they weren't standing when the markets rebounded.  That means that you have to rationalize your business and put more resources behind what is working and not spread yourself too thin.  That means if you are raising another round of funding try to raise more capital rather than less - focus on having about 18 months of fresh dollars to see through the other side.  Finally, stay strong and keep your head up because if you follow the above advice you will have a much stronger business when the markets rebound.

I just got the 451 Group's summary on the top M&A bankers for 2007.  As with 2006, Goldman Sachs was #1 on the list.  Take a look: