There’s nothing like scarcity to make you want something more. Apple understands this, which is why it tightly controls how many iPhones are available at any given time. Some anecdotal evidence is coming in that its partner AT&T is selling out of iPhones in some of its own stores before Apple stores.
By noon ET today, for instance, at least ten AT&T stores in New York City were sold out of iPhones. Our own CrunchGear editor John Biggs, was turned away from an AT&T store in Brooklyn after waiting in line for hours and was devastated (see his bitter-sweet video where he asks, “Am I a person, AT&T and Apple? What if I was pregnant?”).
None of this is too surprising since Apple stores are bigger and can carry more phones in stock. But is Apple artificially limiting how many phones each AT&T store can sell today? One angry reader, Mark Feldman, suggests as much, detailing his ordeal today at an AT&T store in Waltham, Massachusetts. Excerpt:
The manager got up in front of everybody and asked who was here for an iPhone. He then went on to explain that the store was only able to take orders for iPhones that would be delivered to the store in the next 5-7 days. They would take our money and when the iPhones came in we would get a call to come in and pick them up. If they were not picked up in a week, they would be shipped back and the charges reversed. He also said — and this was the kicker – that he had more iPhones in stock but he could not start selling them until Saturday morning due to his contract with Apple! And those would be on a first come, first served basis. In other words, Apple had manufactured a sell out of iPhones for the first day so as to generate “every store sold out of iPhones” [hype].
It’s one thing to actually sell out of your product. It’s another thing to manufacture a sell out of your product.
I am pissed at Apple for taking me for granted! I loved my iPhone and was willing to shell out several hundred dollars for a 3G on Day 1. I feel used. Like a chump who was turned away so Apple could get a nice sound byte on the news and the Blogs. I am so angry that I am planning to vote with my wallet… I am going to wait and buy the BlackBerry Bold which is coming out next month.
(You can read Feldman’s entire e-mail at CrunchGear).
The artificial shortage theory would hold more water if Apple’s own stores started “running out” of iPhones as well. An alternative theory, assuming that this hold-back policy is effective in other AT&T stores besides the one in Waltham, is that Apple wanted to drive more first-day customers to its own stores where it could control the launch better. The problem, though, wasn’t in the stores, it was when everyone tried to update their iPhone software at once, and found themselves holding a brick instead.
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New Zealand, land of LotR and high-priced data plans
Over at CG we’ve been watching the iPhone pricing plans whiz by, from the onerous Rogers tariff to Vodafone New Zealand’s $200 per month for 1 GB data plan. A lot of folks have been complaining about these prices but in light of these international plans, including nasty plans from Europe, AT&T’s pricing isn’t that bad.
Another interesting point: all of us expecting to waltz into AT&T stores and pick up an iPhone for $199 will be sadly surprised. The $199 price is for new contract-holders only. If you’re an AT&T subscriber you’ll be paying $399 and $499 for your iPhone - about $100 less than the non-contract price. AT&T’s thinking behind this - although a bit mercenary - is clear: there’s not much else in AT&T’s line up that will bring in new customers the way Jobs’ space phone will.
UPDATE - Just to set the record straight, here are the prices straight from AT&T:
$199 /$299: for new customers, current postpaid iPhone customers in good standing prior to July 11, and AT&T non-iPhone customers who are currently eligible for an upgrade discount. Requires two-year service agreement.
$399/$499 (early-upgrade price): for non-iPhone customers who are not currently eligible for an upgrade discount but who want their iPhone 3G now. Requires two-year service agreement.
CrunchGear’s Peter Ha gets a bit more forceful in his defense of the pricing.
I’ve been hemming and hawing about doing this post since last week when AT&T revealed all the pricing info for the iPhone 3G. With the release of Vodafone NZ’s pricing today, I can no longer keep my mouth shut. The Kiwis are paying $190 for 1GB of data, 600 minutes, and 600 texts! Not to mention the fact that if they opt for the cheapest plan ($60), they’ll have to shell out $415 (8GB) or $527 (16GB), respectively. I really want to know what you people are bitching and moaning about over AT&T’s plans? As far as I can see, it’s cheaper than every other country that’s getting the iP3G in every respect. Of course, you might be hammered if you’re ineligible for an upgrade, but you should have known this was going to happen.
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Today is basic math day at CrunchGear where we discovered that if 160 bytes of SMS data costs twenty cents then 1MB (1,048,576 bytes) of data would cost 131,072 cents, or $1,310.72.
Check out the prices for a text message plan on AT&T, the exclusive carrier of the iPhone 3G in the United States. AT&T wants twenty cents ($0.20) per text message if you don’t sign up for a plan. A text message is nothing more than 160 bytes of data. The max is 160 characters, and one character equals one byte of data. Great.
In other words, if AT&T charged data downloads at the rate they charge text messages downloading 1MB of data would cost you $1,310.72.
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Pogo works like a regular browser, but it manages pages more visually. Instead of tabs, it has a scrollable strip on the bottom that shows a thumbnail image of each site you’ve visited during your session. A “Springboard” button on the top left takes you to a grid view of your favorite sites—akin to what you might put on your bookmark toolbar. You can also view the rectangular cells in various Coverflow-like animations. You can do the same with regular bookmarks, which are treated as “collections.” You can drag Website images into each collection or associate a collection with a tag. Then any page you tag going forward gets automatically placed within that collection. Your browsing history is also represented visually, as is your search history. For any particular search, every page you click through to gets saved as part of yet another collection—although you can only see one search set at a time.
The visual tricks are neat, but at this early stage I am not sure how many people would ditch their existing browsers for better visualizations. Does it let you browse faster or more efficiently than you could before? I am not sure it does. In any case, AT&T would have been better off releasing this as a plug-in for Firefox. But presenting the Web in a richer, more visual way is definitely part of a bigger user-interface trend we’ve been seeing, especially in search (SearchMe, Snap, and ManagedQ come to mind).
We managed to get our hands on 500 invites. Use the promo code “YhYd16Q8″ (without the quotations) at the Pogo Website. Pogo still may be prettier than it is useful, but its nifty 3D effects may just get you to play around with it for awhile (Note: it’s currently Windows-only).
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Is AT&T pushing tower-climbing workers too hard as it rolls out its 3G data network in preparation for the launch of the next iPhone? Philip Elmer-Dewitt at Apple 2.0 notes a curious rise in cell-tower deaths over the past five weeks. Since April 12th, six cell-tower technicians have fallen to their deaths, and at least three of them were working on AT&T projects. During the four months before that, there were zero cell-tower fatalities.
An AT&T spokesperson denies there is any connection, telling DeWitt that the $20 billion upgrade of AT&T’s data network requires no more than a “software upgrade” at the base of each tower. Yet surely there are times when the towers need to be climbed to troubleshoot the new set-up, place testing equipment on the tower, or remove old equipment that is no longer needed.
When Apple 2.0 previously ran a story about AT&T’s rush to roll out its 3G network in 275 market by the end of June, one commenter from North Carolina named Duke asked:
At what costs? There has been such a rush to get the “3G” up and running that communication tower workers are pushed to their limit. As a safety manager and a communication worker I find it hard to justify the “Hurry up and be SAFE” mentality. One of the largest construction management companies preach the 0 accident policy but force you to get this done at next to nothing in a obserd [sic] time frame and a company who used to be raising the bar are certainly not sharing all of the info. Check http://www.wirelessestimator.com to get an updated list of 3G fatalities. I am sure that the companies in question will state they require a 100% tie off but when push comes to shove get the job done.
Apple is expected to announce its 3G iPhone in June. Hopefully, nobody else will have to die for AT&T to be ready for it.
(Photo by Jeff Kubina).
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Razr anyone? Motorola can’t even give those things away anymore. The once-proud company reported horrible earnings today, with sales down 21 percent and a net loss of $194 million. But the big takeaway was the 39 percent collapse in its mobile phone business. Mobile device revenues in the quarter dropped $2.1 billion compared to last year.
Coincidentally enough, that is almost exactly how much Apple made last quarter over the past three quarters on iPhone sales. That figure comes to $2.3 billion (including lumped-in sales of Apple TVs, which likely made up a very small portion of that total). During yesterday’s earnings call, Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer spelled this out:
We sold 1.7 million iPhones during the March quarter . . .. Total revenue recognized during the quarter from sales of iPhone, iPhone accessories, and payments from carriers was $378 million. Total deferred revenue from iPhone and Apple TV was $1.93 billion at the end of the March quarter.
Add those together and you get $2.3 billion. That deferred revenue he is talking about is what Apple collects from its share of monthly subscription fees from AT&T and other carriers partners—an arrangement that Motorola has never been able to negotiate for its phones. So not only has the iPhone replaced Motorola-class phones as the mobile device of choice among consumers, but Apple is also replacing Motorola’s business model by tapping into that rich vein of monthly subscription fees: An arrangement, by the way, that has been as good for AT&T as it has been for Apple. [Clarification: The deferred revenue is a cumulative figure since Apple started selling iPhones in mid-2007. Last quarter, Apple added about $500 million to that cookie jar).
Here is the segment revenue line for Motorola’s mobile business:
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Now that AT&T and Apple are tied at hip with the iPhone, Apple watchers look to AT&T for details on the health of iPhone sales. This morning, AT&T announced a decent first quarter, with profits up 22 percent, driven by gains in its wireless business. The jewel of that business is the iPhone, which commands nearly double the average monthly revenue per subscriber that AT&T gets from other wireless customers, and is helping to reduce its churn rate. Yet during AT&T’s earnings call this morning, Apple’s shares slumped nearly 4 percent in morning trading after rising over the past two trading days.
Investors were hoping for some indication that AT&T blew the doors off its iPhone sales, and some assurance that Apple would hit its goal of selling 10 million iPhones by the end of the year. Anything over one million new iPhone subscribers would have been well received. It doesn’t look like Apple delivered anywhere near that number, since AT&T added 1.3 million net new subscribers across all phones. (It added 5 million gross new subscribers before accounting for churn).
AT&T didn’t break out the numbers of iPhone additions as it has in the past. (When iPhone sales beat expectations, they are not shy about sharing it). By the end of last year, AT&T had activated two million iPhones. But during today’s call, here are the iPhone details AT&T provided (per Silicon Alley Insider):
iPhone continues to be very popular with customers, feedback is very good. ARPUs are in the mid to upper 90s across the base. We continue to see customers adopting iPhone. Over 40% are new to us. Nothing really new in trends there. Continued, solid growth. Through Q1 stable.
We’ll have to wait for Apple’s earnings tomorrow to find out how many new iPhones were sold in the quarter. The number could still be around 1.5 million because other carriers besides AT&T are selling it internationally, and about 30 percent are unlocked. But AT&T still makes up the vast majority of iPhone sales and usage. The big bump in iPhone sales, especially in Europe, won’t come until the 3G version comes out this summer.
But handing over the keys to its network to Steve Jobs was the smartest thing AT&T ever did. That mid-$90 average revenue per user (ARPU) compares to about $50 for all phones. Higher ARPUs and lower churn is what drives profits in the mobile business.
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Microsoft’s Surface computer will make its commercial debut April 17 in AT&T stores in New York City, Atlanta, San Antonio and San Francisco.
Microsoft first unveiled the Surface back in May 2007; the coffee-table like computer allows touch screen interaction with various surfaces, can recognize objects places on it and even interact with things like mobile phones.
AT&T said it planned to use the Surface to allow customers “to learn about the growing universe of mobile applications and devices.”
I had the opportunity to have a quick play with a Surface earlier this year and it’s one of the cooler things to come out of Redmond in the last 12 months, but I can’t help but wonder: isn’t putting a Surface in an AT&T store like driving an Aston Martin into a Ghetto? To be fair, interacting with a Surface at an AT&T store will be better than trying to interact with AT&T staff; not only will it be quicker (even if you queue for an hour to use it), it will actually be more polite and be able to explain the product its offering competently.
A demo video from May as follows:
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It takes either a very brave or very foolish company to enter the browser wars. But that is exactly what AT&T is doing—in a small way. I was just shown a demo for Pogo, a 3D browser based on Mozilla that is in private beta (we should be getting invites in a couple weeks). It is a project that comes out AT&T’s business development group and Vizible, a Toronto-based company whose 3-D rendering engine gives Pogo a very different look than other browsers. (AT&T is an investor in Vizible). “The concept is not to rebuild the browser,” says Vizible founder and CTO Anthony Gallo, “it is to extend it.” For the foreseeable future, Pogo will only be available for Windows machines.
Pogo works like a regular browser, but it manages pages more visually (see screenshots below). Instead of tabs, it has a scrollable strip on the bottom that shows a thumbnail image of each site you’ve visited during your session. A “Springboard” button on the top left takes you to a grid view of your favorite sites—akin to what you might put on your bookmark toolbar. You can also view the rectangular cells in various Coverflow-like animations. You can do the same with regular bookmarks, which are treated as “collections.” You can drag Website images into each collection or associate a collection with a tag. Then any page you tag going forward gets automatically placed within that collection. Your browsing history is also represented visually, as is your search history. For any particular search, every page you click through to gets saved as part of yet another collection—although you can only see one search set at a time.
A big turnoff, though, is that there are also banner ads in the Springboard and other visual modes. And the search bar is limited to Google and some AT&T-owned product-, image-, and Yellow-Pages-search engines. You can’t swap in another search engine, at least through the beta. Oh, and it only works on Windows.
The visual tricks are neat, but at this early stage I am not sure how many people would ditch their existing browsers for better visualizations. Does it let you browse faster or more efficiently than you could before? I am not sure it does. In any case, AT&T would have been better off releasing this as a plug-in for Firefox. But presenting the Web in a richer, more visual way is definitely part of a bigger user-interface trend we’ve been seeing, especially in search (SearchMe, Snap, and ManagedQ come to mind).
Where Pogo is going is more interesting than where it is at this early stage. Imagine being able to manage all your media—video, audio, photos—through the same visual interface. If Pogo allowed me to “collect” Web videos, photos, and music, and manage them in a unified way like I can with media on my desktop, that would be a big step in the right direction. Check out the video below of Pogo in action, which was taken by my colleague John Biggs of CrunchGear. Towards the end you will see some shots of the underlying Vizible technology, which I personally find more exciting.
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I’m often reminded of the Monty Python line “Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition” as being the perfect analogy for the unexpected, so its apt that I use it here because it looks like what you download online in the United States could soon be monitored and blocked (presuming it breaches copyright) if new plans by AT&T are implemented.
At a panel discussion at the CES conference Tuesday, Senior Vice President of external & legal affairs for AT&T James Cicconi said that “what we are already doing to address piracy hasn’t been working” and further AT&T has been talking to technology companies, the MPAA and RIAA and “we are very interested in a technology based solution and we think a network-based solution is the optimal way to approach this.”
But just in case you think this might be a per-download basis, the target could be much larger than that. General Counsel for NBC Universal Rick Cotton has P2P downloading as his first target, saying “The volume of peer-to-peer traffic online, dominated by copyrighted materials, is overwhelming. That clearly should not be an acceptable, continuing status…the question is how we collectively collaborate to address this.”
This ISP level blocking would be fairly unique, given that most countries that implement censorship online do so at a national level, and usually target porn, moral or political subversion, such as in Australia and China.
Although this would be implemented by AT&T only at this stage giving customers who prefer their internet access without the hand of big brother the ability to change providers, remember that nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition. It could well spread to other ISPs as well, particularly once the MPAA and RIAA have one big win on the board.
With apologies to Monty Python again
“Amongst our weaponry are such diverse elements as fear, surprise, ruthless efficiency, an almost fanatical devotion to copyright, and nice red uniforms.”
(via Engadget)
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