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Why GTA IV Was the Beginning of the End

I think it’s safe to say that the era of next-gen gaming as a driving force is over. Why? As of the week ending June 7th (the most recent tally available), just over 9 million copies of the highly touted Grand Theft Auto IV had been sold worldwide for the Xbox 360 and Sony PS3 combined, according to VGChartz.

That may seem impressive, until you start looking closer — which Microsoft, Sony, and the many publishers who develop for their respective consoles are surely doing now. For one thing, its predecessor, 2004’s GTA: San Andreas, sold 21.5 million copies. With GTA IV sales already plummeting, the franchise’s latest installment from Take-Two Interactive will be lucky to move 12-14 million copies total. What’s more, it cost a record $100 million to develop.

But it gets worse.

Despite being part of one of the most popular video game series of all time, the arrival of GTA IV failed to boost sales of new next-generation consoles. (PS3 and 360 are defined as “next-gen” for boasting the best and latest graphics features.) Meanwhile, sales of the non-next-gen, GTA IV-less Nintendo Wii were double that of PS3/360’s numbers combined. If Grand Theft Auto can’t move more machines, nothing can. Which not only suggests that the market for next-gen consoles has been exhausted, but that the audience for big budget, AAA next-gen titles has been tapped out, too.

Which is why I think GTA IV is next-gen’s siren song, and a sign of drastic changes to come. Expect to see games made for lower budgets, targeted at wider audiences (ones that aren’t fixated on high-end 3D graphics) and delivered over broadband with a micropayment program in place. Don’t expect a follow-up to the 360 or PS3 anytime soon, either. In other words, the days when so-called “next-gen” gaming reigned supreme are coming to end — instead, the industry’s future will be shaped by games like Rock Band.


Image credit: www.rockstargames.com/IV/

Technology-News: GigaOm

Extreme Makeover: The Chip Fab Edition

Don’t you just hate it when you spend $1 billion building something, only to find out it’s obsolete within a decade? That’s the fate of semiconductor managers who have old manufacturing facilities filled with old equipment. The question is how to make the best of a very expensive problem.

Surprisingly, if an older fab is retrofitted it generally doesn’t go on to make photovoltaic chips or become a nanomanufacturing center. In many cases, the fabs continue to make chips, but those that require less cutting-edge technology.

Once a company puts $1 billion into building a plant, they’d like it last for years — preferably decades. But in the fast-paced world of semiconductor manufacturing that can take a lot of work. Speaking on Wednesday at a SEMI meeting held in Austin, the managers of three older fabrication plants tried to read the tea leaves on the fate of older chip-making facilities around the country. After hearing them talk I have to tell you, managing an old fab looks to be more competitive than hitting the top of Techmeme.

Surprisingly, most of the older 200mm fabrication plants are still in use and will remain so for a long time. The key is for the people running them to find products that can be made on older technologies while staying cost effective. Freescale Semiconductor started to revamp processes at its 17-year-old Oakhill fab in the third quarter of last year. That effort should end in mid-2009 and result in more than 30 different products lines being manufactured at the fab. Chris Magnella, the facility’s director of operations, says his goal is to remain competitive with the manufacturing costs of more advanced plants in other countries.

To meet that challenge, he’s selected a mix of products that benefit from being made at 200mm wafers, such as MEMs chips, as well as high-voltage power management chips. Additionally, he’s using equipment that’s incredibly old, trying to keep the costs associated with fab operations down. We’ve written about startups trying this same tack. Magnella declines to make big investments in technology at the fab that won’t pay for themselves in a year or less, and he’s embraced a lean manufacturing ethos that pushes the employees to innovate.

Spansion is operating a fab built in 1994. That facility started out making logic chips for AMD that required constant innovation; it switched to making NOR flash memory in 2002 at a cost of $500 million in upgrades. And in 2006 it switched again to build memory on copper rather than aluminum interconnects, again requiring the replacement of lots of equipments and various upgrades.

Why spend so much money and effort to keep a chip plant making chips? Largely because it’s hard to find buyers who can pay as much as these buildings are worth. Building a fabrication plant requires a lot of special features, among them large allocations of freshwater, incredible foundations and clean rooms. Once the basic infrastructure is laid out, multimillion-dollar tools are installed.

An ideal buyer — a PV manufacturer, for example — might be able to use the building infrastructure, and even some of the tools. A few companies trying to make nanomateirals or biomedical devices in tiny packages would likely be able to use fewer tools, but would still appreciate sterile rooms and the extra water connections. And the lowest tier of buyers might be a data center or basic lab facility.

So the next time you start to worry about the value of your house plummeting, just think about how easy you have it compared with the chip makers.

Technology-News: GigaOm

IBM and Hitachi Partner on 32nm Chips

The web of alliances among semiconductor manufacturers is getting tangled, and as we continue to move down the process node, add one more to the equation. IBM and Hitachi are expected to announce a partnership today to collaborate on getting down to the 32 nanometer and 22 nanometer nodes. Intel expects 22nm chips to come to market in 2011 and 32 nanometer in 2009. IBM is already part of such a partnership for 45 nm develepment with five other companies including AMD, Chartered Semiconductor, Samsung, Freescale and Infineon. IBM is also working with Hitachi and Sony on the cell processor for PS3s and other devices. And Intel? It’s still going it alone.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Real buys Sony Net Services, gets Vodafone

Real Networks, the distant second in the digital music, has to get an A for not giving up. The company is working on a Real everywhere strategy, which is essentially the only way it competes against the digital dominance of Apple. The company has taken a web-services approach and is pushing its subscription service on devices – most notable Sonos, and some Nokia N-Series phones.

Today the company made its move into the Vodafone mobile ecosystem: it acquired a division of Sony called Sony NetServices, that is based out of Salzburg, Austria, for approximately $9 million in cash. The acquisition is not that expensive – it generates incremental revenue of approximately $1 million for the second quarter of 2007 and approximately $7 million for the remainder of 2007, though will be dilutive from an earnings standpoint.

Sony NetServices offers mobile music to Vodafone customers in eight European countries including the UK, Germany, France, and Italy. Real is also going to provide mobile music services to Vodafone across Western Europe. A recent research report pegs the mobile music business will generate more than $9.1 billion in revenue in Western Europe by 2010, and over $32 billion globally. Real also owns WiderThan, another mobile entertainment service, which is primarily focused on US and Asia.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Kutaragi to Step Down From Sony

In an announcement that shouldn’t surprise regular GigaOM readers in the slightest (warning signs emerged as far back as last February, and reached crescendo pitch in November and December), Sony Computer Entertainment Inc. just announced that CEO Ken Kutaragi, the “father of the Playstation”, will leave his post in June and become an “honorary chairman of SCEI”.

By most appearances, his new title will be an “emeritus” position in the sense attributed to Rupert Murdoch, when he showed a Newscorp exec the door: “The ‘e’ means you’ve been given the elbow and the ‘meritus’ means that you bloody deserve it!” Unsurprisingly, most analysts attribute the departure to the Playstation 3’s poor performance against the Wii, and worst blow of all, as compared to the Xbox 360.

Not entirely deserved, however, for despite the numerous missteps in its development, pricing, and marketing, the PS3 ultimately failed because Kutaragi succeeded with the PS2 so well. Though seven years old now, the Playstation 2 is still selling better than the Playstation 3; with a 116 million+ installed base, a massive library, and a list price under $100, there’s little incentive for Playstation fans to spend $600 upgrading. (Especially when quality backward compatibility was in doubt.)

So there’s tragic irony in Kutaragi’s departure. Having transformed videogaming into a truly massive entertainment medium, he seems to have assumed that the market he did so much to create would follow him to the next level.

As IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon put it to the AP, “Sony didn’t notice that their audience was dwindling and didn’t increase the base by playing to a wider demographic, and instead it played the old-school game of playing to the 18- to 32-year-old male early adopter.” But in those seven years, the young men who had eagerly snatched up the PS2 were now having kids of their own, making them ripe targets for a console that could appeal to their whole family. So rises the Wii– and so goes Kutaragi-san.

Technology-News: GigaOm

Are Carriers Killing Mobile Innovation?

Mobile might be the next frontier according to corporate leaders like Google CEO Eric Schmidt, but the market needs innovation to push the mobile web, and mobile services to the next level. At the Wireless Innovations conference in Redwood City on Wednesday, it was clear that many worry about the chokehold of carriers on the wireless ecosystem, which they say is cutting off innovation’s air supply.

On a morning panel, a few executives explained how innovation in mobile is getting shortchanged through the closed carrier-controlled business model. Salil Dalvi, Vice President of wireless platforms at NBC Universal, pointed out that the only platform that is open (and doesn’t need carrier involvement) right now is SMS, and even there you often need a third party aggregator to help out.

Until there is more openness in the market, there won’t be an explosion of innovation. I haven’t seen significant signs on that happening in the near term.

Sony’s Vice President of Programming for Mobile Entertainment, Bill Sanders, compared the attitude of carriers toward cellular-based mobile video, for example, to a gym membership — they hope you never show up because it costs them money if you do. “It’s a very odd way to go about it. Make something that’s entertaining but not quite.”

Sanders also said mobile broadcast services are an old media way of thinking: “Are we really going to move back to the day where everyone turns on the Ed Sullivan show on Sunday night? I don’t think so,” he said.

Some of the panelists were seeing signs that the carrier-controlled model was opening up, through Internet-style data plans and Sprint’s upcoming WiMAX network. But it looks like it’ll take a whole lot longer before any real progress is made.

Data from DowJones’ VentureSource presented at the conference showed that investment in wireless startups went down slightly in the first quarter of 2007 with $700 million invested in 55 deals. If that trend remains for the year, that would bring annual wireless investment down from 2006, though up from the years 2003 to 2005. The figures aren’t so bad for the quarter, but if wireless is such a booming sector, you would think there would be a growth in investment too.

Or is it that smart money is finally coming to terms with the futility of living in carrier-controlled ecosystems?

Technology-News: GigaOm