During its second- quarter earnings call earlier this morning, telco gear maker Alcatel-Lucent said its chairman, Serge Tchuruk, and its CEO, Patricia Russo, would step down. Both said they were stepping down because consolidation after the 2006 merger was complete, and now the company needed someone to take it in a new direction. Russo will leave at the end of the year or sooner if the board finds a replacement, and Tchuruk will leave Oct. 1. Russo especially had faced demands for her departure as the newly combined company lagged.
Demand is falling for Alcatel-Lucent equipment, while its carrier customers contemplate the slow migration to 4G technologies such as LTE and WiMAX. The next-generation networks are coming but are still several quarters out,with LTE networks coming online in 2010 and full deployment closer to 2012. WiMAX is growing now, but it’s a smaller market. Another wrinkle is that some carriers such as Vodafone in the UK are content with their 3.5G networks and don’t plan to move to LTE for even longer.
Given its main customers’ plans around network build-outs, plus the lackluster economic environment, Alcatel-Lucent has been seeking alternatives to telco networking gear, including outfitting electric utilities with smart-grid equipment. It’s a shame that the Alcatel-Lucent deal is faring so poorly, because more consolidation is still needed in this sector.

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Vodafone, one of the largest phone companies in the world, has been slowly buying (and rolling out) fixed-line broadband services across Europe in preparation for fixed mobile convergence. The company’s plans became more concrete last week when it released a new FMC box developed in partnership with Huawei. The device, called Vodafone Station, is essentially a switch/router for ADSL2+ service that can be shared via Fixed Ethernet or Wi-Fi across the home. It also has a removable USB key that allows adds 3G (UMTS/HSPA) service to the box.
When turned on, the Station uses the HSPA to connect to the Vodafone network, allows folks to sign up for a DSL connection, and allows seamless switching to Vodafone’s service. The box, which is currently available only in Italy, is eventually going to be released across Vodafone’s footprint. We first wrote about their plans back in September 2007.
While it isn’t explicitly a femtocell solution and restricts itself to being a fixed broadband enabler, it is not hard to imagine its future uses. In the U.S., T-Mobile has offered similar service for voice calls, piggy-backing on other people’s broadband connections. It’s only a matter of time before other service providers introduce something similar to this device as well.
AT&T, which is soon going to be pushing a 3G version of the iPhone, will be a good candidate for offering similar boxes. Such a device helps them overcome coverage issues, and at the same time takes a load off their wireless backhaul network. More importantly, it makes it easy enough for them to sell a bundled service and take market share away from cable companies. When viewed through that prism you can understand why the honchos at AT&T are always talking about wireless, and why cable companies are ready to spend billions to go wireless.

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Just when the average consumer was learning to take advantage of the 3G network (while perhaps noticing the limits of the 2.5G Edge network on the iPhone), it’s time to prep for 4G. Verizon and Vodafone are already testing 4G equipment that relies on the Long-Term Evolution standard.
Arun Bhikshesvaran, VP of business strategy and CTO for Ericsson North America, said the equipment maker has launched a trial of its LTE baseband equipment with an unnamed carrier. He expects it will be completed toward the end of the year.
He expects 2008 and 2009 to be the trial and test years for the standard and anticipates 2012 will see widespread deployment. Bhikshesvaran further expects the U.S. and Japanese markets to lead the way, with Europe to follow. Although China Mobile announced an LTE test at Mobile World Congress last week, Bhikshesvaran is uncertain if the Chinese market will skip 3G deployment entirely. India chose not to.
The staggered generations of network will only help Ericsson, which faces a smaller end-user market in the U.S. thanks to carrier consolidation and new competitors from the Chinese. The company’s finances have suffered while waiting for the injection of capital spending that a network upgrade cycle brings, although Bhikshesvaran downplayed the affects of stagnant U.S. growth on the company. “We’ve sold more GSM base stations in the last year than we did in the first three,” he noted.
When it comes to competition, Bhikshesvaran said Ericsson has an advantage from having already spent a lot of time and effort working with the standards boards, but acknowledges that formidable competitors could arise in China.
“We can’t underestimate the skill of the Chinese vendors, and to use the American car industry as an example, we could see something like a Toyota or a Honda arise,” Bhikshesvaran said. “The challenge is how do we want to play in that market? We aren’t sure if we want to be a BMW or a Mercedes-Benz, but not something like Chrysler.”
Bhikshesvaran didn’t give details about how Ericsson would avoid the fate besetting American auto companies, but he said the company would be prudent in the Chinese market. As for the rest of the competition, Bhikshesvaran expects Ericsson’s global customer base to offset a slowdown of 3G equipment sales in many markets and the lag between testing and the sale of 4G equipment.
In addition to the network transitions, Bhikshesvaran is pushing for more data traffic on the cellular network — from navigation devices to multimedia downloads — to drive revenue in saturated markets such as the U.S. However, driving more traffic to data networks might require the carriers to give a little on price, as well as to offer compelling services and content on a mobile handset. I’m not sure that by 2012 they’ll have it right.

Hanarotelecom, the second-largest broadband provider in South Korea, has recently become the subject of immense attention. Ever since a Goldman Sachs-led international consortium decided to put its 39.4 percent stake in the company up for sale, prospective punters have been lining up. The latest company rumored to be contemplating a bid: SK Telecom, the largest mobile carrier in South Korea. A triple-play offering could be the motivation for the bid, reports The Wall Street Journal.
Wireless revenues are not growing as fast they once were. If SK Telecom ends up buying Hanaro, many expect Korea Telecom to then bring its wireless business into the tent as well. I think this triple-play trend is only going to gain momentum in the coming months as wireless-only companies find their revenue growth meeting headwinds. Many mobile operators , including Vodafone, are already moving down this path.
Vodafone is adding Spain and Italy to a growing list of countries where it will be offering triple play services. London-based mobile services provider has acquired Spanish and Italian-assets of Tele2 for about $1.1 billion in cash, reports The Wall Street Journal.
It beat out competitors Tiscali and Fastweb in the bid for Tele2 assets. It already offers broadband service in UK, Portugal, Germany and Greece. Triple-play is part of CEO Arun Sarin’s Mobile Plus strategy that is necessary for the company to boost its revenues.
“What is clear to us is that mobility and broadband are the two core things that our company needs to participate in, ” Sarin said at a recent investor conference. (PDF Transcript.) “DSL is a local, country-by-country strategy. There is no one strategy for Europe, simply because the industry structure is very different, the regulatory structures are very different.”
The company is also looking at WiFi and Mesh WiFi as options as well, depending on locations, but one thing is clear - if Sarin continues on the current path of acquisitions, then Vodafone might emerge as a pan-European broadband supplier.
The day is approaching where average consumers will want a true web-browsing Internet-style experience on mobile devices. It might not be anytime soon, but it’s coming nonetheless. For wireless carriers who are now trying to get subscribers to access mobile data over 3G it is both a blessing and a curse — as many have pointed out too many subscribers that might tune into (and upload video to) a truly-mobile YouTube on cell phones could clog a 3G network pretty fast.
What does that mean? Carriers have to upgrade their networks, and are now making the tough and expensive decisions about which way to turn for 4G (I know, it seems like we just got to 3G!). Does a carrier keep upgrading its 3G network and aim for what the telco world calls “long term evolution” (LTE) — 4G network technology from the cellular world which is many years from prime time? Or do carriers start building alternative data-specific networks with technology like mobile WiMAX that is available now?
Carriers are making different decisions based on a variety of factors: How competitive their 3G footprints are, how much spectrum do they own that can be dedicated for mobile WiMAX, and how they anticipate the growth of data-hungry mobile web subscribers. WiMAX is the wireless word of the year, in no small part to Clearwire’s not-so-smooth IPO efforts and Sprint’s (overly?) ambitious network buildout.
While the success of WiMAX is by no means assured, it is becoming a more attractive choice for certain carriers. Mobile WiMAX might be argued as not officially 4G, but it is a precursor. That’s why time to market is the biggest reason why carriers are starting to look seriously at mobile WiMAX. WiMAX is at least two years ahead of LTE in market time, writes ABI Research analyst Ian Cox in a recent report.
For a third place U.S. carrier like Sprint (which is also losing important post-paid subscribers) the company needs to do something sooner rather than later. As this article points out, Sprint needs to do something aggressive to stay competitive with CDMA-leader Verizon Wireless:
Being the smaller player means Sprint has no leverage to pressure Qualcomm, the mother of all sources of CDMA technology, to help it build a network more advanced than Verizon’s. In short, following the conventional CDMA route could leave Sprint stuck permanently in Verizon’s shadow. — VOIP News
Even the CEO of Vodafone recently pointed out at 3GSM that mobile WiMAX is now a major player for future wireless broadband networks, based largely on time to market, according to Seeking Alpha.
Mr. Sarin admitted that LTE is far from being implemented, let alone standardised, and astonished his audience by suggesting that LTE may not even be supported by Vodafone in the future. – Seeking Alpha
Vodafone even has some WiMAX bets in countries like France, Bahrain, Greece, Malta, New Zealand, and South Africa.
Another reason carriers are considering mobile WiMAX is that it is being touted as a cheaper (in some ways) technology to building and upgrading 3G networks. Dan Lockee, an analyst at Pyramid Research, wrote recently that WiMAX spectrum has been significantly cheaper than 3G spectrum, and “in some cases, WiMAX spectrum has been less than one-thousandth of the cost of 3G spectrum for a given geographic area.” Though, he also points out that WiMAX spectrum will get more expensive as more regulators release lower frequencies to be used for mobile WiMAX.
When comparing infrastructure to infrastructure, deploying mobile WiMAX networks is often thought to be cheaper than deploying 3G networks, though currently, ABI’s Phil Solis says the costs are actually about the same:
“what many companies in the industry are finding out is that the costs are approximately the same when comparing apples-to-apples (including, or not including, site acquisition, towers, other equipment, and backhaul for both 3G and WiMAX). This is not to say that it will remain this way, but just that at this point in time, mobile WiMAX deployment costs are on par with 3G deployment costs.”
Thinking about costs also depends on what networks carriers have already built and how they are upgrading. The costs are varying depending on the degree of the upgrade. Solis says that when Sprint makes its cost comparison claims, it is comparing the addition of mobile WiMAX to its existing 3G infrastructure:
“Existing base stations will be used (and some new ones added), other existing equipment at the site, and the existing backhaul. So what Sprint is really saying is that it will be overlaying mobile WiMAX onto its 3G network at one tenth the cost of what it takes to build out its 3G network. In other words, Sprint is greatly expanding its access speeds and capacity above and beyond 3G, and is doing so with a marginal increase in cost (a 10 percent increase).”
WiMAX might have lower costs and be ready now, but a lot of carriers are still aiming for LTE. ABI says network operators will invest a total of almost $18 billion in LTE capital infrastructure over the period between the end of this year and 2014.
There’s a lot of choices for carriers as they are forced to become mobile broadband suppliers and not just voice networks. While it’s not clear which one will be the “right” choice in the long run, we’re likely to see some pick WiMAX as the right choice for right now.