In its second-quarter earnings call this morning, AT&T highlighted the awesome growth of its wireless business, which surged 14.8 percent to $11 billion and accounted for roughly a third of its $30.9 billion in revenue for the period. The company also said that the 3G iPhone was selling twice as fast as the first one, which given the price cut, isn’t too surprising.
Equally unsurprising was the 10 percent rise in the number of smartphone subscribers over the second quarter of 2007 (AT&T is the sole carrier of the iPhone in the U.S.). And those users are surfing the web, pushing AT&T’s data revenue up 52 percent from the same period a year ago, to $2.5 billion. After adding 1.3 million wireless subscribers during the quarter, AT&T is still the largest cell phone carrier with 72.9 million subscribers. However, Verizon said yesterday it had added 1.5 million subscribers, so the iPhone exclusivity can only do so much.
The tethered world was a little less rosy, however. AT&T did add 170,000 new U-verse subscribers, bringing that total to 549,000; it also reiterated its goal of having a million subscribers by year-end. But triple-play services were down and broadband growth is slowing. Subscribers to voice, data and TV fell to 48.4 million from 49.5 million at the end of the second quarter of 2007. And AT&T’s total broadband connections now number 14.7 million, up 1.4 million over the same quarter last year but a mere 46,000 higher than the first quarter of the year.

As the average consumer embraces ever more complex technology, Verizon is offering a series of classes beginning in New York City to show consumers what their PDAs and smartphones can do for them. I’m sure many of our readers aren’t in need of such a class — which will teach users all about texting, syncing music and emails — but it’s a great idea.
I hated my BlackBerry Pearl when I first got it; it took what felt like forever to figure out how it was supposed to work. If done well, teaching people like me to use their phones should increase data revenue and overall ARPU for Verizon. If done well, it will also make committed smartphone users out of most participants. And luring people into the store and to teach them the “Verizon way,” means consumers are likely to pick up a few high-margin accessories to bolster their education.
People in the technology field know that poor usability and device complexity hurts customer satisfaction, but keep cramming more features into them. As consumers, rather than enterprises, buy more devices and drive technology adoption, usability needs to improve, or else vendors such as Best Buy with their Geek Squad or Verizon with its classes will take up the slack. At that point, consumers are more likely to heed the advice of their favorite Geek rather than the glossy ads of an OEM when looking for their next purchase.

Verizon President and Chief Operating Officer Dennis Strigl made a big splash at NXTcomm 08 yesterday when he announced that the entire Verizon FiOS footprint could now get speeds of 50 megabits per second. Typically such bandwidth news wouldn’t cause that much of a furor, but there wasn’t much to write home about from the show, which was held in Las Vegas this week.
In his speech, Strigl pointed out that the U.S. has the highest number of broadband users when compared with other countries, in particular that broadband is available in every U.S. zip code. Good point — and one that I’ve made in the past myself — except that it’s no longer true. By that metric, China now leads. Yes, the FCC used to defined broadband as a service that offered, at a minimum, 200 kbps downloads, but it’s since changed that requirement to 768 kbps.
But where Strigl went too far was when he suggested that three-quarters of American households have two providers to choose from — aka a duopoly, which is not my idea of a competitive marketplace. If you factor in wireless and satellite, he said, there are actually six or seven competitors. Talk about twisting the facts to fit one version of the truth! This part of his speech, however, had me choking on my breakfast cereal.
“Massachusetts and New Jersey have similar population density to Korea and Japan and similar broadband penetration. Unlike other countries, what we have accomplished has come not through [government] policy but through private investment.
How telling. So subverting government policy via lobbyists and highly biased friends at the FCC to ensure a future monopoly is all part of good, capitalistic, private investment theory? Maybe Harvard can include that in its future MBA curriculum.
Regardless, I thought it would be fun to see how Massachusetts and New Jersey really square up against South Korea and Japan when it comes to the price of a broadband connection:
Average broadband speeds in South Korea and Japan are 49.5 megabits per second and 63.6 megabits per second, respectively. The average U.S. speed is about 4.9 megabits per second, making it the 14th-fastest country in the world. The average price in South Korea and Japan is about 83 cents per megabit. In the U.S, it’s about $2.83.
But since it would be unfair to use average U.S. stats, I went with Verizon’s prices, the ones it’s going to offer in Massachusetts and New Jersey. On Verizon’s FiOS network, a 50 Mbps connection costs $140 a month — or about $2.80 a megabit. In fact, if you went with Verizon’s 20 Mbps service, you would be paying $3.25 per megabit. (To be fair, Verizon’s price-per-megabit is still cheaper than the $5.25 Qwest charges for its 20 Mbps connection, which costs $105 a month.)
In other words, not until Verizon starts selling a 50 Mbps connection for $41.50 a month and 20 Mbps fiber connection for $16.60 a month can Strigl get away with comparing U.S. broadband with that of the rest of the world.

A recent report from ABI Research highlights the rise of mobile Linux, estimating that 23 percent of the world’s smartphones will have a Linux operating system by 2013. It appears that much of that growth will come at the expense of Nokia’s Symbian, and that LiMo and Android will be the main beneficiaries. What the report doesn’t note is that last year ABI predicted that 31 percent of smartphones will have Linux by 2012.
Either there’s something to explain the change in numbers, or we should perhaps take our analyst reports with a grain of salt. However, Linux is undoubtedly moving fast: 15 handsets were launched earlier this year with LiMo, and after several demos and prototypes, anticipation for the Android is running high. But the jury is still out on which framework will win out with carriers and application developers.
LiMo has the backing of NEC, Motorola and Samsung as well as SK Telecom and Verizon. Android, through the Open Handset Alliance, has T-Mobile, NTT DoCoMo, China Telecom, Telefonica, Google and several others. The stated goal behind both efforts is to eliminate some of the costs associated with developing mobile applications for multiple operating systems by using open source. It’s a laudable goal, but the fight between the two for market share demonstrates how hard it will be to lower costs, as developers will still have to build for multiple platforms.
photo courtesy of the LiMo Foundation and NTT DoCoMo

Verizon reported its first-quarter earnings this morning, with most things going as expected. Wireless is booming (1.5 million net additions, 13 percent revenue growth), FiOS TV’s demand seems to be picking up (263,000 new subscribers, putting the total at 1.2 million), and not surprisingly, the company saw accelerated decline in the number of wireline customers. During the quarter, the company lost 762,000 residential lines and about 186,000 lines.
In other words, there is a renewed urgency around FiOS offerings. The fiber broadband and TV offerings can help overcome some of the line losses. During the quarter, the company added 266,000 new broadband connections — 262,000 of which came from FiOS Internet service. The company had a total of 8.5 million connections: 6.7 million DSL-based Verizon High Speed Internet connections and 1.8 million FiOS Internet connections.
What that means is that Verizon’s DSL growth is all but over. At the end of 2007, the company had 8.2 million subscribers. Of the 300,000 new subscribers Verizon added in the first quarter of 2008, 262,000 are FiOS fiber subscribers. That leaves 38,000 DSL subscribers — or roughly 12,600 new additions per month. At present, FiOS Internet is available for sale to 7.9 million premises. Penetration for the service averaged 22.9 percent across all markets.
Verizon, like many other carriers, is in a race against time: It is critical for the phone companies to keep people talking on their lines if they want to sell them broadband and video services in the future.

I’m getting ready to hit Sin City for next week’s CTIA Wireless show, from April 1-3, so for those of you not planning to attend — or who will attend but plan to gamble away your expense money — here’s your cheat sheet for the show.
Sure, everyone will be hoping for an announcement about the $3 billion Sprint/Cable/Clearwire joint venture that Om has dubbed the U.S. Rescue WiMax Act, and pondering both the valuation of and chances for Motorola’s handset business, but there will be a few trends to keep an eye out for as well.
Speech recognition and voice navigation on the mobile phone will be hot topics, with news expected out of vendors both big and small. An early indicator is voice mail-to-text provider SpinVox’s $100 million financing round. Look for other startups to launch similar services at the show, and for new search features and products from existing market players.
You won’t be able to walk down the aisle without running into someone offering a better way to watch, stream or create content on a mobile phone. While I’m skeptical about mobile video in the U.S., plenty of companies are still beating that drum. And with mobile content travel its two ugly stepsisters, advertising and digital rights management. There will be plenty of plays there.
All that content needs bandwidth, and the equipment vendors will be out in force with their WiMax and LTE equipment. Brace yourself for impressive upload and downlink demos as well as new service offerings such as television over a WiMax network.
In the meantime, now that the 700 MHz spectrum auction has ended and Verizon has laid out its plans, people are sure to be debating the benefits of open networks.
And finally, a 2008 wireless show wouldn’t be complete without plenty of femtocell demos and the much-anticipated launch of an Android-based phone. I, along with hundreds of other journalists, will be there, hoping to score the next big scoop. So if you see me, feel free to say hello and gently point me in the right direction.

Since everybody likes lists, here are the 10 things you need to know about the 4G technology known as Long-Term Evolution, or LTE, standard.


mobile
infrastructure
broadband
intel
motorola
vz
semiconductors

Google
mobile
intc
Technology-News
clearwire
vz
semiconductors
Verizon’s VoIP patents have become a lucrative source of income for the second-largest phone company in the U.S. After squeezing out $120 million from Vonage, the company has been filing patent infringement lawsuits against all comers — from tiny startups to cable giants like Cox. Today Verizon went after Charter Communications.
On the flip side, VoIP Inc., an Altamonte Springs, Fla.-based VoIP provider with a questionable business outlook, is almost out of gas. They owe Verizon about $8 million related to the settlement the two companies agreed to last year. As Fierce VoIP points out.
Unless Verizon believes in fairies, this money is as good as gone because the stock price is now at $0.008, creditors are already in the courts for big debts and VoIP Inc. is admitting it expects to have to write off its only real asset, its network business.
Convicted felon Steve Ivester was involved with VoIP Inc. during its early days when it was making a transition from tea company to Vonage competitor. Over the past 12 months, VoIP Inc.’s stock has tanked — from over $8 a share to less than a penny.

Like finding a $20 bill in your coat pocket at the beginning of winter, Sprint has “found” a potential source of revenue in its patent portfolio. While it will certainly be harder than reaching into a coat pocket, the beleaguered wireless carrier probably sees patent litigation as easier than its corporate turnaround.
After squeezing $80 million out of Vonage last year, Sprint has apparently decided that its 115 “voice over packet” patents might be its next cash cow. The carrier says it will sue four smaller phone companies — NuVox Communications, Broadvox Holdings, Big River Telephone Co. and Paetec Communications — for violating six of its patents associated with delivering voice over a data network. It is seeking damages and an injunction. Interestingly, the carrier didn’t try to negotiate with the providers before dropping the L-bomb on them. All of the carriers said they were reviewing the lawsuit and couldn’t comment at this time.
Considering that these six patents have been tried in the courts thanks to Vonage, Sprint is in a much stronger position when it comes to getting a licensing deal, which makes the fact that Sprint chose to go with a lawsuit interesting. It’s likely that when presented with the patent violations and a reasonable license fee, the companies could reach some common ground. Another VoIP company, VoiceGlo, was sued in 2005 along with Vonage, and negotiated an undisclosed license with Sprint covering its use of the patents.
That means Sprint is either going for the injunction (to shut down its competitors), or it is taking them to court in an effort to weaken them (by way of scoring a larger financial settlement). Either way, Sprint is playing hardball — and it isn’t alone.
After successfully coaxing a $120 million settlement out of Vonage last year, Verizon Communications is also asserting its VoIP patents against a competitor. Earlier this month, Verizon sued cable operator Cox Communications for infringing eight patents. Two of those patents are the same ones Verizon successfully defended against Vonage. Vonage may have had to pay millions, but it looks like the power its loss gives the incumbents might keep independent VoIP players paying for years.

The 700MHz auction kicks off today, and like kids waiting for Santa Claus, the technology and business publications are tense with anticipation. But FCC chairman Kevin Martin is keeping a lid on this auction, rather than post periodic updates as was done in the AWS auction in 2006.
While you wait to learn who gets the goods who gets a lump of coal, here’s a quick list of everything you need to know about the upcoming auction and why it matters. Check out all the links, because the bidding doesn’t conclude until March 24 and down payments aren’t due until April 11. You’ve got time.
And like childhood obesity, short attention spans and the general decline of Western Civilization, you can blame all of this controversy on television — the shift from analog to digital TV signals, to be exact.

The $250 million Vonage burned through as a result of the patent lawsuit brought by Verizon et al provides yet another example of why patents for business processes implemented on computers (a.k.a. software patents) deserve to die. Verizon’s two successful “name translation” patents negate an open standard assembled by Cisco, Microsoft, IBM, Intel and Vocaltec via the VoIP Forum during 1996. The threat of patent litigation cleared the landscape of independent VoIP companies the VoIP Forum sought to make possible.
Vonage survived and can look forward to a prosperous future as the third player in an oligopoly with the regional telcos and cablecos, but this hardly seems like the success story sought with the opening of patent protection to business methods in 1999. The work of the VoIP Forum built on the ITU H.323 standard, which dates back to 1991 , so Vonage’s loss in court does not owe to a lack of prior art. Vonage lost because of the difficulty in finding the proper documentation of prior art 15 years after the fact.
The antidote to software patents involves creating their exact opposite — a formal process of contributing software innovations to the public domain. Vonage’s experience, however, illustrates that the various standards-creating processes represent only a first step. A successful open-source model for patents requires creating a searchable archive of prior art in which inventors contribute their innovations in order to get protection from subsequent litigation.
This would replace the patent office’s dependence on the oath signed by patent applicants “acknowledging the duty to disclose all information known to be material to patentability.” Vonage’s decision to base its technical implementations on the work of the VoIP Forum and IETF seems reasonable. Who would have guessed the patent office granted Verizon a patent on the same subject matter?
Verizon’s “name translation” patents address the process of converting between an IP address and a telephone number during call setup. Absent the expectation of end users dialing IP addresses, all VoIP implementations will involve some form of “name translation.” A patent examiner trying to meet expectations of reviewing a patent per day can be excused for having missed the fact that the name translation issue arose with the ITU H.323 standard.
Questions remain over how Verizon failed to disclose the H.323 standard in their declaration, never mind the VoIP Forum’s efforts that built on the H.323 standard. Verizon’s first name-translation patent (’711) has a filing date two months after the VoIP Forum published the results of their efforts. Verizon’s prior art disclosures also failed to mention VocalTec Communications, the company credited with bringing the VoIP category to public awareness in February 1995. The author of the patent in question, Eric Voit, initiated a relationship with Lior Haramaty, a co-founder of VocalTec, in the same month he filed the first patent.
As project director for VocalTec, I was around then; I also led a joint venture with Digital Equipment that involved implementing Verizon’s first VoIP pilot in 1998. Eric Voit’s second patent, from February 2000 (’574), incorporates ideas addressed in detail during this pilot. However, Verizon filed the second patent as a continuation of the first — and it, too, was absent any disclosure about VocalTec or the VoIP Forum. The filing of the second patent as a continuation gives the claims the same prior art grace period as the first patent.
A formal process of filing prior art to the public domain will protect an emerging infocom industry better than just depending on overworked patent examiners and applicants for prior art searches.

Cynthia Brumfield is a long-time communications, broadband and media analyst at Emerging Media Dynamics, and a blogger at IP Democracy.
AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson triggered a mini-free fall in the shares of phone companies last week when he told investors at a Citibank conference that non-pay disconnects are “happening all across consumer products lines,” with the possible exception of wireless voice accounts. In other words, a larger-than-expected chunk of customers aren’t paying their bills. And AT&T is pulling the plug on them.
This bit of concrete evidence that a recession is indeed underway spooked an already jittery stock market, dragging down non-telecommunications shares in the process. Hardest hit, though, were the leading telecom and cable companies, which managed to recovered slightly but continue to labor under a cloud of investor suspicion.
Comcast CFO Michael J. Angelakis echoed Stephenson’s claim. Speaking at the same Citibank conference, Angelakis said that during the second half of 2007 “we clearly saw bad debts increase, and we clearly saw a pickup in churn.” Translation: A growing number of cable customers aren’t paying their bills, either.
Against this backdrop, earnings season is about to get underway, meaning we’ll soon get a look at some hard fourth-quarter 2007 numbers from the top telecom and cable companies. If Stephenson and Angelakis are any indication, we’re in for disappointing results from the country’s top broadband, voice and video providers.
But a recession-driven slowdown for either cable or phone companies would be a new thing. Historically, cable has prided itself on being recession-proof. During the recession of the early 1990s and the downturn in 2001 and 2002, cable companies didn’t lose customers. In fact, in 2001 and 2002, cable was in the midst of digital TV and high-speed Internet rollouts, which cranked up growth (although the telecom and dot.com meltdowns, not to mention the accounting scandal that brought down WorldCom, made cable seem like it, too, was in the doldrums).
Phone companies have also held up well during economic downturns. Even though the big incumbent companies that now make up AT&T, Verizon and Qwest started losing access lines in 2000, those losses were mostly restricted to the commercial sector and were due to the rapid late-90s rise of competitive local exchange carriers. Consumer spending cutbacks typical of a recession didn’t come into play.
Things could be different this time around, because unlike in the past, cable and phone companies now sell a lot of services that consumers feel are discretionary. During past downturns, customers clung to their voice and pay-TV services because the telephone was considered essential and subscription TV was a bargain service, relative to other entertainment options.
However, that held true before the days of triple-play or quadruple-play bundles, before multiple digital service tiers and HD packages came along and before broadband either existed or was widely adopted. The thing to watch out for now is the possibility that the proverbial bundles of voice, video and data services might unravel.
For example, homes that buy both mobile and landline voice services could feel free to simply cut off the wired voice connection. During his Citibank talk, Stephenson cited this cost-savings measure as one cause of what will in all likelihood be stepped-up line losses for the company in the fourth quarter. Not that wireless substitution hasn’t been going on for a while, but tight household budgets could no doubt accelerate this trend.
Contrary to what I would normally expect, broadband service might turn out be a dispensable expense during a recession. “It’s non-pay disconnect that is driving the disconnect on access lines and on broadband as well,” Stephenson said during his Citigroup talk, reiterating several times that residential broadband growth has suffered some kind of a setback.
Cable companies, which posted very disappointing growth rates across the service board for the third quarter of ‘07 — before the economic slowdown truly took hold — have already started drawing up lower-cost service options and are about to market “double-play” packages of voice and high-speed services.
So what will we hear from cable operators and phone companies in the upcoming quarterly reporting season? Comcast officially confirmed back in December that it won’t make its fiscal 2007 guidance, citing weaker-than-expected subscriber gains. Based on the sounds Stephenson made, AT&T is managing expectations in advance of a weak fourth-quarter report as well.
Most of the other cable and phone companies will probably not have much better news, with the possible exception of Verizon, whose CFO, Denny Strigl, told the same Citigroup investors that the weak economy had “minimal” impact on his company. Moreover, in contrast to its peers, Verizon issued relatively robust third-quarter numbers last fall.
But compared to a lot of other industries, and despite any short-term hit that cable and phone companies may take, the communications network business — be it cable, telco or wireless — is a relatively sure bet in the long term. Both AT&T’s Stephenson and Comcast’s Angelakis, while acknowledging the challenges of increased competition and a weak economy, stressed this fact. “We are in the middle of a growth industry,” Stephenson said.

Champions of a more open Internet could take a small bit of cheer from Yahoo’s plans, unveiled today, to open up its mobile platform to third-party developers. But the lack of a service-provider partner to endorse the idea is one clear sign that chief Yahoo Jerry Yang and all the other exclamation-pointers have a long way to go before they can expect to have a major impact on the growing market of the mobile web.
To be sure, plans like Yahoo’s Go or Google’s Android, which aim to bring the power of the open Internet to your handheld device, seem a preferable future than locked-in services like Verizon’s VCast. But without a service-provider partner to watch its back, Yahoo (YHOO) seems unable to answer a big looming question for open-Internet apps accessed via a cellular phone: How fast will the app perform, and how much will it cost to download the data?
Here at CES this year, there’s evidence of a trend toward more single-purpose devices or agreements (like Sony’s Skype/PSP deal, which has BT as the phone power behind it) that are complete with the service necessary to deliver the goods.
On the video side, LG has an interesting plan to give existing broadcasters a mobile outlet, just another one of the competing methods arising to bring TV to places you never thought possible. But like Yahoo’s ideas, such plans don’t mean a whole lot unless the service providers play along.
Since we weren’t able to view the Yang speech live here at CES (long bus lines and the absence of transporter technology kept us from getting from the Sands to the LVCC in time), we weren’t able to question Yahoo folks afterwards about service-provider buy-in for Go 3.0. But there’s plenty of time ahead for answers.
Paul Kapustka, former managing editor for GigaOM, now has his own blog at Sidecut Reports.

Vermont regulators are giving Verizon’s decision to sell 1.6 million lines in Vermont, Maine and New Hampshire the thumbs down. They are concerned that buyer of these lines, Fairpoint Communications of Charlotte, NC is too small and as a result the service will suffer, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Fairpoint will have to take on about $2.5 billion in debt to make the deal happen, which means there is real risk of quality of service will go down as Fairpoint starts to tighten the belts to pay off the debt. This is particularly bad news for Verizon which is counting on sales of these quasi-rural lines to fund its fiber optic network. The $2.5 billion can be revived if Verizon lowers the price.
This isn’t the last we have heard of Verizon’s problems with the state PSBs, and expect this to become a hot issue in the upcoming election year.
Update: A spokesperson for Verizon emailed me and said that the sale of lines is not for funding the fiber optic network.
We are NOT counting on this money to fund anything, including Fiber deployment. Our debt is very low and our cash flow is high. We have the capex already built into our funding plan. We are selling these lines simply because they are not a strategic fit for us given our broadband plans. Plus, we’ll continue to be heavily invested in Vermont with wireless and enterprise.
Why phone lines - 1.6 million in total - not strategic for a phone company, I don’t get!
