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In its second-quarter earnings call this morning, AT&T highlighted the awesome growth of its wireless business, which surged 14.8 percent to $11 billion and accounted for roughly a third of its $30.9 billion in revenue for the period. The company also said that the 3G iPhone was selling twice as fast as the first one, which given the price cut, isn’t too surprising.

Equally unsurprising was the 10 percent rise in the number of smartphone subscribers over the second quarter of 2007 (AT&T is the sole carrier of the iPhone in the U.S.). And those users are surfing the web, pushing AT&T’s data revenue up 52 percent from the same period a year ago, to $2.5 billion. After adding 1.3 million wireless subscribers during the quarter, AT&T is still the largest cell phone carrier with 72.9 million subscribers. However, Verizon said yesterday it had added 1.5 million subscribers, so the iPhone exclusivity can only do so much.

The tethered world was a little less rosy, however. AT&T did add 170,000 new U-verse subscribers, bringing that total to 549,000; it also reiterated its goal of having a million subscribers by year-end. But triple-play services were down and broadband growth is slowing. Subscribers to voice, data and TV fell to 48.4 million from 49.5 million at the end of the second quarter of 2007. And AT&T’s total broadband connections now number 14.7 million, up 1.4 million over the same quarter last year but a mere 46,000 higher than the first quarter of the year.

Cynthia Brumfield is a long-time communications, broadband and media analyst at Emerging Media Dynamics, and a blogger at IP Democracy.

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson triggered a mini-free fall in the shares of phone companies last week when he told investors at a Citibank conference that non-pay disconnects are “happening all across consumer products lines,” with the possible exception of wireless voice accounts. In other words, a larger-than-expected chunk of customers aren’t paying their bills. And AT&T is pulling the plug on them.

This bit of concrete evidence that a recession is indeed underway spooked an already jittery stock market, dragging down non-telecommunications shares in the process. Hardest hit, though, were the leading telecom and cable companies, which managed to recovered slightly but continue to labor under a cloud of investor suspicion.

Comcast CFO Michael J. Angelakis echoed Stephenson’s claim. Speaking at the same Citibank conference, Angelakis said that during the second half of 2007 “we clearly saw bad debts increase, and we clearly saw a pickup in churn.” Translation: A growing number of cable customers aren’t paying their bills, either.

Against this backdrop, earnings season is about to get underway, meaning we’ll soon get a look at some hard fourth-quarter 2007 numbers from the top telecom and cable companies. If Stephenson and Angelakis are any indication, we’re in for disappointing results from the country’s top broadband, voice and video providers.

But a recession-driven slowdown for either cable or phone companies would be a new thing. Historically, cable has prided itself on being recession-proof. During the recession of the early 1990s and the downturn in 2001 and 2002, cable companies didn’t lose customers. In fact, in 2001 and 2002, cable was in the midst of digital TV and high-speed Internet rollouts, which cranked up growth (although the telecom and dot.com meltdowns, not to mention the accounting scandal that brought down WorldCom, made cable seem like it, too, was in the doldrums).

Phone companies have also held up well during economic downturns. Even though the big incumbent companies that now make up AT&T, Verizon and Qwest started losing access lines in 2000, those losses were mostly restricted to the commercial sector and were due to the rapid late-90s rise of competitive local exchange carriers. Consumer spending cutbacks typical of a recession didn’t come into play.

Things could be different this time around, because unlike in the past, cable and phone companies now sell a lot of services that consumers feel are discretionary. During past downturns, customers clung to their voice and pay-TV services because the telephone was considered essential and subscription TV was a bargain service, relative to other entertainment options.

However, that held true before the days of triple-play or quadruple-play bundles, before multiple digital service tiers and HD packages came along and before broadband either existed or was widely adopted. The thing to watch out for now is the possibility that the proverbial bundles of voice, video and data services might unravel.

For example, homes that buy both mobile and landline voice services could feel free to simply cut off the wired voice connection. During his Citibank talk, Stephenson cited this cost-savings measure as one cause of what will in all likelihood be stepped-up line losses for the company in the fourth quarter. Not that wireless substitution hasn’t been going on for a while, but tight household budgets could no doubt accelerate this trend.

Contrary to what I would normally expect, broadband service might turn out be a dispensable expense during a recession. “It’s non-pay disconnect that is driving the disconnect on access lines and on broadband as well,” Stephenson said during his Citigroup talk, reiterating several times that residential broadband growth has suffered some kind of a setback.

Cable companies, which posted very disappointing growth rates across the service board for the third quarter of ‘07 — before the economic slowdown truly took hold — have already started drawing up lower-cost service options and are about to market “double-play” packages of voice and high-speed services.

So what will we hear from cable operators and phone companies in the upcoming quarterly reporting season? Comcast officially confirmed back in December that it won’t make its fiscal 2007 guidance, citing weaker-than-expected subscriber gains. Based on the sounds Stephenson made, AT&T is managing expectations in advance of a weak fourth-quarter report as well.

Most of the other cable and phone companies will probably not have much better news, with the possible exception of Verizon, whose CFO, Denny Strigl, told the same Citigroup investors that the weak economy had “minimal” impact on his company. Moreover, in contrast to its peers, Verizon issued relatively robust third-quarter numbers last fall.

But compared to a lot of other industries, and despite any short-term hit that cable and phone companies may take, the communications network business — be it cable, telco or wireless — is a relatively sure bet in the long term. Both AT&T’s Stephenson and Comcast’s Angelakis, while acknowledging the challenges of increased competition and a weak economy, stressed this fact. “We are in the middle of a growth industry,” Stephenson said.

This week, San Francisco will play host to the CTIA’s Wireless I.T. & Entertainment convention, an annual gathering of those intimately involved with the U.S. mobile industry — from tiny startups to corporate giants such as Verizon (VZ), Qualcomm (QCOM), Nokia (NOK) and AT&T (T).

Many will talk about their vision of the future, and at some point will undoubtedly lament over how far we lag behind Europe. With the help of analyst Chetan Sharma, I decided to pull together a small comparison chart that gives you a sense of what’s fact and what’s fiction.

I would like to point out that the above numbers are subscriptions and not the actual number of subscribers — often a point of contention. It’s also worth nothing that a lot of folks in Europe are pre-paid customers and that people have a habit of carrying more than one SIM card. Lastly, the comparison between the U.S. and Western Europe is going to get more interesting once we have complete information for 2007.

Update: As many of you have noted in comments, subscribers in Europe do not pay for incoming calls. However, the carriers do collect incoming calls revenue form other carriers through settlement procedure. The ARPU calculations include total revenue (subs + settlement) divided by subs. The US settlement regime is based on bill and keep (subs pays for both) and no carrier settlements for incoming calls. Hope this helps!

For AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ), it has become impossible to ignore one of the world’s fastest-growing mobile markets: India. The Wall Street Journal reports on a recent trip AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson took to India, in which he was looking to make a wireless play in partnership with local telecom company Telecom Mahindra.

“You can’t look at the market and not get excited,” Stephenson told the Wall Street Journal. This wouldn’t be AT&T’s first Indian venture; it previously had a stake in Idea Cellular, but sold it for $210 million. That company now has a market capitalization of $8 billion.

Now there are reports that Verizon might be working with a new entrant — Videocon — as part of its India strategy. Verizon confirmed that it has a partnership with Videocon, but that is for fixed line services including International long distance. It is still not clear if their partnership extends to the wireless business. British Telecom is also considering offering wireless services in India. India is expected to have 500 million mobile subscribers by 2010.

In the wireless world, small is not beautiful. MetroPCS (PCS), a Dallas-based wireless operator, has learned this lesson quickly and is now proposing a tax-free stock-for-stock merger with Leap Wireless (LEAP). The proposal says Leap shareholders would get 2.75 PCS shares for each share, and thus values Leap at $5.3 billion.

The MetroPCS management in the press release noted that the terms they are offering are fair, because since their IPO in April of this year, “Leap’s stock price has traded in part in anticipation of a merger between the two companies.” MetroPCS went public recently and raised a billion dollars.

Given their spectrum overlap and market positioning, the deal makes sense, as the companies compete with larger, deep pocketed players such as AT&T (T) and Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Verizon (VZ) and Vodafone. Folks at UBS Research say that the

“combined company would own licenses covering nearly all the top 200 markets in the US providing significant scale… the opportunity cost saving from not having to build out in overlapping markets could also be significant.”

Metro PCS is one of the companies — thanks to its focus on sub prime customers — that is at extreme risk if the current housing and credit crisis starts to spread. The two companies have enough spectrum for advanced wireless services and if they can bulk-up, can emerge as the fifth national carrier to challenge the big four. There is going to be further consolidation in the smaller wireless carrier space, and MetroPCS along with the recently-private AllTel could become the consolidators.